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Gladiator vs Cavese — Serie D - Girone G 2019

Gladiator
Gladiator
FT
1 – 3
HT: 1 – 2
Cavese
Cavese
10/15/2023Serie D - Girone GSerie D - Girone G · Group G - 6Stadio Mario Piccirillo

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 17+ matches

Gladiator22%
×Draw27%
Cavese52%
✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 6 more than always backing the home side
Model
49.7%
Always home
44.3%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 49.7% correct across 106,786 matches, vs 44.3% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.7% correct · Away picks 47.3% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

Gladiator
0.84
Cavese
1.46

Cavese creates 74% more chances

Season form · 34 home / 17 away

creates per match

Gladiator
1.03
Cavese
1.65

allows per match

Gladiator
1.26
Cavese
0.65

finishing

Gladiator+0.00on par
Cavese+0.00on par

Total goals

60%Under
  • Under60
  • Over40

Fewer than 3 goals likely

Both teams score

56%No
  • No56
  • Yes44

One side may not score

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Gladiator ↓

Cavese →
0
1
2
3
4
0
0–010%
0–115%
0–211%
0–35%
0–42%
1
1–08%
1–112%
1–29%
1–34%
1–42%
2
2–04%
2–15%
2–24%
2–32%
2–41%
3
3–01%
3–11%
3–21%
3–31%
3–40%
4
4–00%
4–10%
4–20%
4–30%
4–40%

Most likely 0–1 (15%) · grid covers 98% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5
90%10%1.5
67%33%2.5
40%60%3.5
20%80%4.5
8%92%

Double chance

Gladiator or draw
48%
Gladiator or Cavese
73%
Draw or Cavese
78%

Winning margin

Gladiator wins by 2+
7%
Cavese wins by 2+
26%

Team goals

Gladiator 1+ goals
57%
Gladiator 2+ goals
21%
Gladiator 3+ goals
5%
Cavese 1+ goals
77%
Cavese 2+ goals
43%
Cavese 3+ goals
18%

Draw no bet

Gladiator (draw refunded)
30%
Cavese (draw refunded)
70%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals
31%
Both score & under 3
12%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Gladiator at home — creates 1.03, concedes 1.26 · 34 matches

Cavese away — creates 1.65, concedes 0.65 · 17 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Gladiator attack 1.03 + Cavese defence 0.65 → ÷2 → 0.84

Cavese attack 1.65 + Gladiator defence 1.26 → ÷2 → 1.46

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 52%?"

Gladiator scores more
22%
level
27%
Cavese scores more
52%

Cavese at 52% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

  • injuries & suspensions
  • the matchday lineup
  • motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
  • weather & pitch condition
  • in-game coaching decisions

So 52% does not mean "Cavese will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Probable lineups not yet announced

Starting lineups are usually confirmed ~1 hour before kickoff

Match Recap: Gladiator vs Cavese

Cavese beat Gladiator 3-1 in Serie D - Girone G on October 15, 2023.

The match was played at Stadio Mario Piccirillo in Santa Maria Capua Vetere.