GKS Katowice W 2–1 Slask Wroclaw W: Result & Stats

GKS Katowice W

FT

2 – 1

HT: 1 – 0

Slask Wroclaw W

5/9/2026

Ekstraliga Women · Round 20

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 32+ matches

GKS Katowice W60%

×Draw19%

Slask Wroclaw W21%

✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 5 more than always backing the home side

Model

50.3%

Always home

44.5%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 50.3% correct across 582,450 matches, vs 44.5% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.5% correct · Away picks 49.5% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

GKS Katowice WExpected goals in this matchSlask Wroclaw W

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

2.35

1.33

GKS Katowice W

2.35

Slask Wroclaw W

1.33

GKS Katowice W creates 77% more chances

Season form · 32 home / 33 away

2.88

creates per match

1.91

0.75

allows per match

1.82

creates per match

GKS Katowice W

2.88

Slask Wroclaw W

1.91

allows per match

GKS Katowice W

0.75

Slask Wroclaw W

1.82

+0.00on par

finishing

+0.00on par

finishing

GKS Katowice W+0.00on par

Slask Wroclaw W+0.00on par

Total goals

Over71
Under29

3+ goals likely

Both teams score

Yes66
No34

Both teams likely to score

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

GKS Katowice W ↓

Slask Wroclaw W →

0

1

2

3

4

0

0–03%

0–13%

0–22%

0–31%

0–40%

1

1–06%

1–18%

1–25%

1–32%

1–41%

2

2–07%

2–19%

2–26%

2–33%

2–41%

3

3–06%

3–17%

3–25%

3–32%

3–41%

4

4–03%

4–14%

4–23%

4–31%

4–40%

Most likely 2–1 (9%) · grid covers 91% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5

97%3%1.5

88%12%2.5

71%29%3.5

50%50%4.5

30%70%

Double chance

GKS Katowice W or draw

79%

GKS Katowice W or Slask Wroclaw W

81%

Draw or Slask Wroclaw W

40%

Winning margin

GKS Katowice W wins by 2+

38%

Slask Wroclaw W wins by 2+

9%

Team goals

GKS Katowice W 1+ goals

90%

GKS Katowice W 2+ goals

68%

GKS Katowice W 3+ goals

41%

Slask Wroclaw W 1+ goals

74%

Slask Wroclaw W 2+ goals

38%

Slask Wroclaw W 3+ goals

15%

Draw no bet

GKS Katowice W (draw refunded)

74%

Slask Wroclaw W (draw refunded)

26%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals

58%

Both score & under 3

8%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

GKS Katowice W at home — creates 2.88, concedes 0.75 · 32 matches

Slask Wroclaw W away — creates 1.91, concedes 1.82 · 33 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

GKS Katowice W attack 2.88 + Slask Wroclaw W defence 1.82 → ÷2 → 2.35

Slask Wroclaw W attack 1.91 + GKS Katowice W defence 0.75 → ÷2 → 1.33

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 60%?"

GKS Katowice W scores more

60%

level

19%

Slask Wroclaw W scores more

21%

GKS Katowice W at 60% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

injuries & suspensions
the matchday lineup
motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
weather & pitch condition
in-game coaching decisions

So 60% does not mean "GKS Katowice W will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Probable lineups not yet announced

Starting lineups are usually confirmed ~1 hour before kickoff