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GKS Katowice W vs Pogon Szczecin W — Ekstraliga Women 2023

GKS Katowice W
GKS Katowice W
FT
1 – 0
Pogon Szczecin W
Pogon Szczecin W
3/23/2024Ekstraliga WomenEkstraliga Women · Round 15Stadion ul. Bukowa

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 32+ matches

GKS Katowice W41%
×Draw22%
Pogon Szczecin W37%
✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 5 more than always backing the home side
Model
50%
Always home
44.6%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 50% correct across 579,794 matches, vs 44.6% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.2% correct · Away picks 49.2% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

GKS Katowice W
1.80
Pogon Szczecin W
1.71

Both teams create about equally

Season form · 32 home / 32 away

creates per match

GKS Katowice W
2.88
Pogon Szczecin W
2.66

allows per match

GKS Katowice W
0.75
Pogon Szczecin W
0.72

finishing

GKS Katowice W+0.00on par
Pogon Szczecin W+0.00on par

Total goals

68%Over
  • Over68
  • Under32

3+ goals likely

Both teams score

68%Yes
  • Yes68
  • No32

Both teams likely to score

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

GKS Katowice W ↓

Pogon Szczecin W →
0
1
2
3
4
0
0–03%
0–15%
0–24%
0–33%
0–41%
1
1–05%
1–19%
1–28%
1–35%
1–42%
2
2–05%
2–18%
2–27%
2–34%
2–42%
3
3–03%
3–15%
3–24%
3–32%
3–41%
4
4–01%
4–12%
4–22%
4–31%
4–40%

Most likely 1–1 (9%) · grid covers 94% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5
97%3%1.5
86%14%2.5
68%32%3.5
46%54%4.5
27%73%

Double chance

GKS Katowice W or draw
63%
GKS Katowice W or Pogon Szczecin W
78%
Draw or Pogon Szczecin W
59%

Winning margin

GKS Katowice W wins by 2+
21%
Pogon Szczecin W wins by 2+
19%

Team goals

GKS Katowice W 1+ goals
83%
GKS Katowice W 2+ goals
54%
GKS Katowice W 3+ goals
27%
Pogon Szczecin W 1+ goals
82%
Pogon Szczecin W 2+ goals
51%
Pogon Szczecin W 3+ goals
24%

Draw no bet

GKS Katowice W (draw refunded)
52%
Pogon Szczecin W (draw refunded)
48%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals
59%
Both score & under 3
9%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

GKS Katowice W at home — creates 2.88, concedes 0.75 · 32 matches

Pogon Szczecin W away — creates 2.66, concedes 0.72 · 32 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

GKS Katowice W attack 2.88 + Pogon Szczecin W defence 0.72 → ÷2 → 1.80

Pogon Szczecin W attack 2.66 + GKS Katowice W defence 0.75 → ÷2 → 1.71

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 41%?"

GKS Katowice W scores more
41%
level
22%
Pogon Szczecin W scores more
37%

GKS Katowice W at 41% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

  • injuries & suspensions
  • the matchday lineup
  • motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
  • weather & pitch condition
  • in-game coaching decisions

So 41% does not mean "GKS Katowice W will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Probable lineups not yet announced

Starting lineups are usually confirmed ~1 hour before kickoff

Ekstraliga Women: GKS Katowice W 1–0 Pogon Szczecin W

GKS Katowice W beat Pogon Szczecin W 1-0 in Ekstraliga Women on March 23, 2024.

The match was played at Stadion ul. Bukowa in Katowice.