GKS Katowice W 2–0 Medyk Konin W: Result & Stats

GKS Katowice W

FT

2 – 0

HT: 1 – 0

Medyk Konin W

9/16/2023

Ekstraliga Women · Round 5Stadion ul. Bukowa

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 11+ matches

GKS Katowice W83%

×Draw11%

Medyk Konin W5%

✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 5 more than always backing the home side

Model

50%

Always home

44.6%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 50% correct across 579,794 matches, vs 44.6% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.2% correct · Away picks 49.2% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

GKS Katowice WExpected goals in this matchMedyk Konin W

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

2.98

0.65

GKS Katowice W

2.98

Medyk Konin W

0.65

GKS Katowice W creates 358% more chances

Season form · 32 home / 11 away

2.88

creates per match

0.55

0.75

allows per match

3.09

creates per match

GKS Katowice W

2.88

Medyk Konin W

0.55

allows per match

GKS Katowice W

0.75

Medyk Konin W

3.09

+0.00on par

finishing

+0.00on par

finishing

GKS Katowice W+0.00on par

Medyk Konin W+0.00on par

Total goals

Over69
Under31

3+ goals likely

Both teams score

No55
Yes45

One side may not score

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

GKS Katowice W ↓

Medyk Konin W →

0

1

2

3

4

0

0–03%

0–12%

0–21%

0–30%

0–40%

1

1–08%

1–15%

1–22%

1–30%

1–40%

2

2–012%

2–18%

2–23%

2–31%

2–40%

3

3–012%

3–18%

3–23%

3–31%

3–40%

4

4–09%

4–16%

4–22%

4–30%

4–40%

Most likely 2–0 (12%) · grid covers 85% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5

97%3%1.5

87%13%2.5

69%31%3.5

47%53%4.5

28%72%

Double chance

GKS Katowice W or draw

95%

GKS Katowice W or Medyk Konin W

89%

Draw or Medyk Konin W

17%

Winning margin

GKS Katowice W wins by 2+

64%

Medyk Konin W wins by 2+

1%

Team goals

GKS Katowice W 1+ goals

95%

GKS Katowice W 2+ goals

79%

GKS Katowice W 3+ goals

56%

Medyk Konin W 1+ goals

48%

Medyk Konin W 2+ goals

14%

Medyk Konin W 3+ goals

3%

Draw no bet

GKS Katowice W (draw refunded)

94%

Medyk Konin W (draw refunded)

6%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals

40%

Both score & under 3

5%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

GKS Katowice W at home — creates 2.88, concedes 0.75 · 32 matches

Medyk Konin W away — creates 0.55, concedes 3.09 · 11 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

GKS Katowice W attack 2.88 + Medyk Konin W defence 3.09 → ÷2 → 2.98

Medyk Konin W attack 0.55 + GKS Katowice W defence 0.75 → ÷2 → 0.65

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 83%?"

GKS Katowice W scores more

83%

level

11%

Medyk Konin W scores more

5%

GKS Katowice W at 83% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

injuries & suspensions
the matchday lineup
motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
weather & pitch condition
in-game coaching decisions

So 83% does not mean "GKS Katowice W will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Probable lineups not yet announced

Starting lineups are usually confirmed ~1 hour before kickoff