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GKS Katowice vs Zaglebie Sosnowiec — I Liga 2018

GKS Katowice
GKS Katowice
FT
3 – 1
HT: 1 – 0
Zaglebie Sosnowiec
Zaglebie Sosnowiec
8/6/2022I LigaI Liga · Round 4Stadion ul. Bukowa

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 68+ matches

GKS Katowice46%
×Draw26%
Zaglebie Sosnowiec28%
✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 5 more than always backing the home side
Model
50%
Always home
44.6%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 50% correct across 579,794 matches, vs 44.6% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.2% correct · Away picks 49.2% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

GKS Katowice
1.48
Zaglebie Sosnowiec
1.08

GKS Katowice creates 37% more chances

Season form · 68 home / 85 away

creates per match

GKS Katowice
1.49
Zaglebie Sosnowiec
0.94

allows per match

GKS Katowice
1.22
Zaglebie Sosnowiec
1.48

finishing

GKS Katowice+0.00on par
Zaglebie Sosnowiec+0.00on par

Total goals

53%Under
  • Under53
  • Over47

Fewer than 3 goals likely

Both teams score

51%Yes
  • Yes51
  • No49

Close call

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

GKS Katowice ↓

Zaglebie Sosnowiec →
0
1
2
3
4
0
0–08%
0–18%
0–25%
0–32%
0–40%
1
1–011%
1–112%
1–27%
1–32%
1–41%
2
2–08%
2–19%
2–25%
2–32%
2–40%
3
3–04%
3–15%
3–22%
3–31%
3–40%
4
4–02%
4–12%
4–21%
4–30%
4–40%

Most likely 1–1 (12%) · grid covers 98% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5
92%8%1.5
72%28%2.5
47%53%3.5
25%75%4.5
12%88%

Double chance

GKS Katowice or draw
72%
GKS Katowice or Zaglebie Sosnowiec
74%
Draw or Zaglebie Sosnowiec
54%

Winning margin

GKS Katowice wins by 2+
23%
Zaglebie Sosnowiec wins by 2+
11%

Team goals

GKS Katowice 1+ goals
77%
GKS Katowice 2+ goals
43%
GKS Katowice 3+ goals
19%
Zaglebie Sosnowiec 1+ goals
66%
Zaglebie Sosnowiec 2+ goals
29%
Zaglebie Sosnowiec 3+ goals
10%

Draw no bet

GKS Katowice (draw refunded)
63%
Zaglebie Sosnowiec (draw refunded)
37%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals
39%
Both score & under 3
12%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

GKS Katowice at home — creates 1.49, concedes 1.22 · 68 matches

Zaglebie Sosnowiec away — creates 0.94, concedes 1.48 · 85 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

GKS Katowice attack 1.49 + Zaglebie Sosnowiec defence 1.48 → ÷2 → 1.48

Zaglebie Sosnowiec attack 0.94 + GKS Katowice defence 1.22 → ÷2 → 1.08

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 46%?"

GKS Katowice scores more
46%
level
26%
Zaglebie Sosnowiec scores more
28%

GKS Katowice at 46% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

  • injuries & suspensions
  • the matchday lineup
  • motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
  • weather & pitch condition
  • in-game coaching decisions

So 46% does not mean "GKS Katowice will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Probable lineups not yet announced

Starting lineups are usually confirmed ~1 hour before kickoff

I Liga: GKS Katowice 3–1 Zaglebie Sosnowiec

GKS Katowice beat Zaglebie Sosnowiec 3-1 in I Liga on August 6, 2022.

The match was played at Stadion ul. Bukowa in Katowice.