GKS Katowice 1–1 Podbeskidzie: Result & Stats

GKS Katowice

FT

1 – 1

HT: 0 – 0

Podbeskidzie

G. Rogala 62'

K. Biliński 56'

2/19/2023

I Liga · Round 20Stadion ul. Bukowa

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 7+ matches

GKS Katowice67%

×Draw19%

Podbeskidzie15%

✓ Correct in 49 of 100 matches — 5 more than always backing the home side

Model

48.6%

Always home

43.8%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 48.6% correct across 15,072 matches, vs 43.8% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.1% correct · Away picks 45.3% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

GKS KatowiceExpected goals in this matchPodbeskidzie

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

2.27

0.96

GKS Katowice

2.27

Podbeskidzie

0.96

GKS Katowice creates 136% more chances

Season form · 12 home / 7 away

2.67

creates per match

1.00

0.92

allows per match

1.86

creates per match

GKS Katowice

2.67

Podbeskidzie

1.00

allows per match

GKS Katowice

0.92

Podbeskidzie

1.86

+0.00on par

finishing

+0.00on par

finishing

GKS Katowice+0.00on par

Podbeskidzie+0.00on par

Total goals

Over62
Under38

3+ goals likely

Both teams score

Yes55
No45

Both teams likely to score

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

GKS Katowice ↓

Podbeskidzie →

0

1

2

3

4

0

0–04%

0–14%

0–22%

0–31%

0–40%

1

1–09%

1–19%

1–24%

1–31%

1–40%

2

2–010%

2–110%

2–25%

2–32%

2–40%

3

3–08%

3–17%

3–24%

3–31%

3–40%

4

4–04%

4–14%

4–22%

4–31%

4–40%

Most likely 2–0 (10%) · grid covers 93% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5

96%4%1.5

83%17%2.5

62%38%3.5

40%60%4.5

22%78%

Double chance

GKS Katowice or draw

85%

GKS Katowice or Podbeskidzie

81%

Draw or Podbeskidzie

33%

Winning margin

GKS Katowice wins by 2+

43%

Podbeskidzie wins by 2+

5%

Team goals

GKS Katowice 1+ goals

90%

GKS Katowice 2+ goals

66%

GKS Katowice 3+ goals

39%

Podbeskidzie 1+ goals

62%

Podbeskidzie 2+ goals

25%

Podbeskidzie 3+ goals

7%

Draw no bet

GKS Katowice (draw refunded)

82%

Podbeskidzie (draw refunded)

18%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals

47%

Both score & under 3

9%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

GKS Katowice at home — creates 2.67, concedes 0.92 · 12 matches

Podbeskidzie away — creates 1.00, concedes 1.86 · 7 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

GKS Katowice attack 2.67 + Podbeskidzie defence 1.86 → ÷2 → 2.27

Podbeskidzie attack 1.00 + GKS Katowice defence 0.92 → ÷2 → 0.96

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 67%?"

GKS Katowice scores more

67%

level

19%

Podbeskidzie scores more

15%

GKS Katowice at 67% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

injuries & suspensions
the matchday lineup
motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
weather & pitch condition
in-game coaching decisions

So 67% does not mean "GKS Katowice will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Match Events

56'

K. Biliński

62'

G. Rogala

63'

M. Kołodziejski← D. Tanżyna

67'

M. Janota← E. Bonifacio

70'

S. Bergier← J. Arak

77'

M. Misztal← T. Neugebauer

77'

M. Sitek← K. Drzazga

77'

T. Milašius← F. Hartherz

84'

M. Urynowicz← O. Repka

84'

Z. Wojciechowski← G. Rogala

87'

Y. Çeltik← Goku Román

89'

T. Milasius

90+4'

T. MilasiusGoal Disallowed

GKS

Podbeskidzie

▼

▼

▼

▼

⚽

▼

▼

⚽

▼

▼

▼

Manager: R. Górak

63'▲M. Kołodziejski←▼D. Tanżyna

70'▲S. Bergier←▼J. Arak

84'▲M. Urynowicz←▼O. Repka

84'▲Z. Wojciechowski←▼G. Rogala

GKS Katowice substitutes

KołodziejskiBergierUrynowiczWojciechowskiBródBrzozowskiRoginićSzczukaKrawczyk

Manager: D. Żuraw

67'▲M. Janota←▼E. Bonifacio

77'▲M. Misztal←▼T. Neugebauer

77'▲M. Sitek←▼K. Drzazga

77'▲T. Milašius←▼F. Hartherz

87'▲Y. Çeltik←▼Goku Román

Podbeskidzie substitutes

JanotaMisztalSitekMilašiusÇeltikMikołajewskiMarkovNowakKaczorowski

Match Recap: GKS Katowice vs Podbeskidzie

GKS Katowice and Podbeskidzie drew 1-1 in I Liga on February 19, 2023.

Goals: K. Biliński (56'), G. Rogala (62').

The match was played at Stadion ul. Bukowa in Katowice.

GKS Katowice vs Podbeskidzie — I Liga 2025

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Total goals

Both teams score

Match Events

Head to Head

Match Recap: GKS Katowice vs Podbeskidzie