GKS Katowice 2–1 Górnik Łęczna: Result & Stats

GKS Katowice

FT

2 – 1

HT: 1 – 1

Górnik Łęczna

P. Kurbiel 83'

G. Rogala 38'

P. Wojciechowski 34' (pen)

6/3/2020

II Liga - East · Round 23Stadion ul. Bukowa

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 17+ matches

GKS Katowice45%

×Draw24%

Górnik Łęczna31%

✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 5 more than always backing the home side

Model

50.2%

Always home

44.5%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 50.2% correct across 585,598 matches, vs 44.5% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.5% correct · Away picks 49.3% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

GKS KatowiceExpected goals in this matchGórnik Łęczna

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

1.63

1.30

GKS Katowice

1.63

Górnik Łęczna

1.30

GKS Katowice creates 25% more chances

Season form · 36 home / 17 away

1.97

creates per match

1.47

1.14

allows per match

1.29

creates per match

GKS Katowice

1.97

Górnik Łęczna

1.47

allows per match

GKS Katowice

1.14

Górnik Łęczna

1.29

+0.00on par

finishing

+0.00on par

finishing

GKS Katowice+0.00on par

Górnik Łęczna+0.00on par

Total goals

Over56
Under44

3+ goals likely

Both teams score

Yes58
No42

Both teams likely to score

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

GKS Katowice ↓

Górnik Łęczna →

0

1

2

3

4

0

0–05%

0–17%

0–25%

0–32%

0–41%

1

1–09%

1–111%

1–27%

1–33%

1–41%

2

2–07%

2–19%

2–26%

2–33%

2–41%

3

3–04%

3–15%

3–23%

3–31%

3–40%

4

4–02%

4–12%

4–21%

4–31%

4–40%

Most likely 1–1 (11%) · grid covers 97% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5

95%5%1.5

79%21%2.5

56%44%3.5

34%66%4.5

17%83%

Double chance

GKS Katowice or draw

69%

GKS Katowice or Górnik Łęczna

76%

Draw or Górnik Łęczna

55%

Winning margin

GKS Katowice wins by 2+

23%

Górnik Łęczna wins by 2+

13%

Team goals

GKS Katowice 1+ goals

80%

GKS Katowice 2+ goals

48%

GKS Katowice 3+ goals

22%

Górnik Łęczna 1+ goals

73%

Górnik Łęczna 2+ goals

37%

Górnik Łęczna 3+ goals

14%

Draw no bet

GKS Katowice (draw refunded)

60%

Górnik Łęczna (draw refunded)

40%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals

47%

Both score & under 3

11%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

GKS Katowice at home — creates 1.97, concedes 1.14 · 36 matches

Górnik Łęczna away — creates 1.47, concedes 1.29 · 17 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

GKS Katowice attack 1.97 + Górnik Łęczna defence 1.29 → ÷2 → 1.63

Górnik Łęczna attack 1.47 + GKS Katowice defence 1.14 → ÷2 → 1.30

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 45%?"

GKS Katowice scores more

45%

level

24%

Górnik Łęczna scores more

31%

GKS Katowice at 45% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

injuries & suspensions
the matchday lineup
motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
weather & pitch condition
in-game coaching decisions

So 45% does not mean "GKS Katowice will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Match Events

24'

B. Kalinkowski

33'

A. Jedrych

34'

P. WojciechowskiPenalty

38'

48'

60'

60'

67'

83'

Probable lineups not yet announced

Starting lineups are usually confirmed ~1 hour before kickoff