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GKS Katowice vs Garbarnia Kraków — I Liga 2018

GKS Katowice
GKS Katowice
FT
1 – 2
HT: 0 – 2
Garbarnia Kraków
Garbarnia Kraków
10/23/2018I LigaI Liga · Round 14Stadion ul. Bukowa (Katowice)

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 17+ matches

GKS Katowice58%
×Draw23%
Garbarnia Kraków20%
✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 6 more than always backing the home side
Model
49.7%
Always home
44.3%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 49.7% correct across 106,786 matches, vs 44.3% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.7% correct · Away picks 47.3% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

GKS Katowice
1.83
Garbarnia Kraków
0.96

GKS Katowice creates 91% more chances

Season form · 68 home / 17 away

creates per match

GKS Katowice
1.49
Garbarnia Kraków
0.71

allows per match

GKS Katowice
1.22
Garbarnia Kraków
2.18

finishing

GKS Katowice+0.00on par
Garbarnia Kraków+0.00on par

Total goals

53%Over
  • Over53
  • Under47

3+ goals likely

Both teams score

52%Yes
  • Yes52
  • No48

Close call

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

GKS Katowice ↓

Garbarnia Kraków →
0
1
2
3
4
0
0–06%
0–16%
0–23%
0–31%
0–40%
1
1–011%
1–111%
1–25%
1–32%
1–40%
2
2–010%
2–110%
2–25%
2–32%
2–40%
3
3–06%
3–16%
3–23%
3–31%
3–40%
4
4–03%
4–13%
4–21%
4–30%
4–40%

Most likely 1–0 (11%) · grid covers 96% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5
94%6%1.5
77%23%2.5
53%47%3.5
30%70%4.5
15%85%

Double chance

GKS Katowice or draw
80%
GKS Katowice or Garbarnia Kraków
77%
Draw or Garbarnia Kraków
42%

Winning margin

GKS Katowice wins by 2+
33%
Garbarnia Kraków wins by 2+
7%

Team goals

GKS Katowice 1+ goals
84%
GKS Katowice 2+ goals
54%
GKS Katowice 3+ goals
28%
Garbarnia Kraków 1+ goals
62%
Garbarnia Kraków 2+ goals
25%
Garbarnia Kraków 3+ goals
7%

Draw no bet

GKS Katowice (draw refunded)
75%
Garbarnia Kraków (draw refunded)
25%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals
41%
Both score & under 3
11%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

GKS Katowice at home — creates 1.49, concedes 1.22 · 68 matches

Garbarnia Kraków away — creates 0.71, concedes 2.18 · 17 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

GKS Katowice attack 1.49 + Garbarnia Kraków defence 2.18 → ÷2 → 1.83

Garbarnia Kraków attack 0.71 + GKS Katowice defence 1.22 → ÷2 → 0.96

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 58%?"

GKS Katowice scores more
58%
level
23%
Garbarnia Kraków scores more
20%

GKS Katowice at 58% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

  • injuries & suspensions
  • the matchday lineup
  • motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
  • weather & pitch condition
  • in-game coaching decisions

So 58% does not mean "GKS Katowice will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Probable lineups not yet announced

Starting lineups are usually confirmed ~1 hour before kickoff

Match Recap: GKS Katowice vs Garbarnia Kraków

Garbarnia Kraków beat GKS Katowice 2-1 in I Liga on October 23, 2018.

The match was played at Stadion ul. Bukowa (Katowice).