Garbarnia Kraków 1–3 GKS Katowice: Result & Stats

Garbarnia Kraków

FT

1 – 3

HT: 0 – 0

GKS Katowice

9/21/2019

II Liga - East · Round 10Stadion Garbarni przy ul. Barskiej

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 35+ matches

Garbarnia Kraków36%

×Draw25%

GKS Katowice39%

✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 6 more than always backing the home side

Model

49.7%

Always home

44.3%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 49.7% correct across 106,786 matches, vs 44.3% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.7% correct · Away picks 47.3% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Garbarnia KrakówExpected goals in this matchGKS Katowice

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

1.39

1.46

Garbarnia Kraków

1.39

GKS Katowice

1.46

Both teams create about equally

Season form · 69 home / 35 away

1.57

creates per match

1.51

1.42

allows per match

1.20

creates per match

Garbarnia Kraków

1.57

GKS Katowice

1.51

allows per match

Garbarnia Kraków

1.42

GKS Katowice

1.20

+0.00on par

finishing

+0.00on par

finishing

Garbarnia Kraków+0.00on par

GKS Katowice+0.00on par

Total goals

Over54
Under46

3+ goals likely

Both teams score

Yes58
No42

Both teams likely to score

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Garbarnia Kraków ↓

GKS Katowice →

0

1

2

3

4

0

0–06%

0–18%

0–26%

0–33%

0–41%

1

1–08%

1–112%

1–29%

1–34%

1–42%

2

2–06%

2–18%

2–26%

2–33%

2–41%

3

3–03%

3–14%

3–23%

3–31%

3–40%

4

4–01%

4–11%

4–21%

4–30%

4–40%

Most likely 1–1 (12%) · grid covers 97% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5

94%6%1.5

78%22%2.5

54%46%3.5

32%68%4.5

16%84%

Double chance

Garbarnia Kraków or draw

61%

Garbarnia Kraków or GKS Katowice

75%

Draw or GKS Katowice

64%

Winning margin

Garbarnia Kraków wins by 2+

16%

GKS Katowice wins by 2+

19%

Team goals

Garbarnia Kraków 1+ goals

75%

Garbarnia Kraków 2+ goals

40%

Garbarnia Kraków 3+ goals

16%

GKS Katowice 1+ goals

77%

GKS Katowice 2+ goals

43%

GKS Katowice 3+ goals

18%

Draw no bet

Garbarnia Kraków (draw refunded)

48%

GKS Katowice (draw refunded)

52%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals

46%

Both score & under 3

12%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Garbarnia Kraków at home — creates 1.57, concedes 1.42 · 69 matches

GKS Katowice away — creates 1.51, concedes 1.20 · 35 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Garbarnia Kraków attack 1.57 + GKS Katowice defence 1.20 → ÷2 → 1.39

GKS Katowice attack 1.51 + Garbarnia Kraków defence 1.42 → ÷2 → 1.46

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 39%?"

Garbarnia Kraków scores more

36%

level

25%

GKS Katowice scores more

39%

GKS Katowice at 39% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

injuries & suspensions
the matchday lineup
motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
weather & pitch condition
in-game coaching decisions

So 39% does not mean "GKS Katowice will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Probable lineups not yet announced

Starting lineups are usually confirmed ~1 hour before kickoff