GKS Katowice 1–0 Chrobry Głogów: Result & Stats

GKS Katowice

FT

1 – 0

HT: 0 – 0

Chrobry Głogów

10/8/2022

I Liga · Round 13Stadion ul. Bukowa

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 68+ matches

GKS Katowice46%

×Draw25%

Chrobry Głogów28%

✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 5 more than always backing the home side

Model

50.3%

Always home

44.5%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 50.3% correct across 582,450 matches, vs 44.5% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.5% correct · Away picks 49.5% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

GKS KatowiceExpected goals in this matchChrobry Głogów

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

1.53

1.13

GKS Katowice

1.53

Chrobry Głogów

1.13

GKS Katowice creates 35% more chances

Season form · 68 home / 138 away

1.49

creates per match

1.04

1.22

allows per match

1.57

creates per match

GKS Katowice

1.49

Chrobry Głogów

1.04

allows per match

GKS Katowice

1.22

Chrobry Głogów

1.57

+0.00on par

finishing

+0.00on par

finishing

GKS Katowice+0.00on par

Chrobry Głogów+0.00on par

Total goals

Under50
Over50

Close call

Both teams score

Yes53
No47

Both teams likely to score

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

GKS Katowice ↓

Chrobry Głogów →

0

1

2

3

4

0

0–07%

0–18%

0–24%

0–32%

0–40%

1

1–011%

1–112%

1–27%

1–33%

1–41%

2

2–08%

2–19%

2–25%

2–32%

2–41%

3

3–04%

3–15%

3–23%

3–31%

3–40%

4

4–02%

4–12%

4–21%

4–30%

4–40%

Most likely 1–1 (12%) · grid covers 98% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5

93%7%1.5

74%26%2.5

50%50%3.5

28%72%4.5

13%87%

Double chance

GKS Katowice or draw

72%

GKS Katowice or Chrobry Głogów

75%

Draw or Chrobry Głogów

54%

Winning margin

GKS Katowice wins by 2+

23%

Chrobry Głogów wins by 2+

11%

Team goals

GKS Katowice 1+ goals

78%

GKS Katowice 2+ goals

45%

GKS Katowice 3+ goals

20%

Chrobry Głogów 1+ goals

68%

Chrobry Głogów 2+ goals

31%

Chrobry Głogów 3+ goals

11%

Draw no bet

GKS Katowice (draw refunded)

62%

Chrobry Głogów (draw refunded)

38%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals

41%

Both score & under 3

12%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

GKS Katowice at home — creates 1.49, concedes 1.22 · 68 matches

Chrobry Głogów away — creates 1.04, concedes 1.57 · 138 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

GKS Katowice attack 1.49 + Chrobry Głogów defence 1.57 → ÷2 → 1.53

Chrobry Głogów attack 1.04 + GKS Katowice defence 1.22 → ÷2 → 1.13

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 46%?"

GKS Katowice scores more

46%

level

25%

Chrobry Głogów scores more

28%

GKS Katowice at 46% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

injuries & suspensions
the matchday lineup
motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
weather & pitch condition
in-game coaching decisions

So 46% does not mean "GKS Katowice will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Probable lineups not yet announced

Starting lineups are usually confirmed ~1 hour before kickoff