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Gjilani vs Ulpiana — Superliga 2019

Gjilani
Gjilani
FT
2 – 0
HT: 0 – 0
Ulpiana
Ulpiana
3/6/2022SuperligaSuperliga · Round 23Stadiumi me bar sintetik Gjilan

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 18+ matches

Gjilani54%
×Draw25%
Ulpiana21%
✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 5 more than always backing the home side
Model
50%
Always home
44.6%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 50% correct across 579,794 matches, vs 44.6% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.2% correct · Away picks 49.2% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

Gjilani
1.64
Ulpiana
0.93

Gjilani creates 76% more chances

Season form · 125 home / 18 away

creates per match

Gjilani
1.34
Ulpiana
0.89

allows per match

Gjilani
0.96
Ulpiana
1.94

finishing

Gjilani+0.00on par
Ulpiana+0.00on par

Total goals

53%Under
  • Under53
  • Over47

Fewer than 3 goals likely

Both teams score

51%No
  • No51
  • Yes49

Close call

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Gjilani ↓

Ulpiana →
0
1
2
3
4
0
0–08%
0–17%
0–23%
0–31%
0–40%
1
1–013%
1–112%
1–25%
1–32%
1–40%
2
2–010%
2–110%
2–24%
2–31%
2–40%
3
3–06%
3–15%
3–22%
3–31%
3–40%
4
4–02%
4–12%
4–21%
4–30%
4–40%

Most likely 1–0 (13%) · grid covers 97% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5
92%8%1.5
73%27%2.5
47%53%3.5
26%74%4.5
12%88%

Double chance

Gjilani or draw
79%
Gjilani or Ulpiana
75%
Draw or Ulpiana
46%

Winning margin

Gjilani wins by 2+
29%
Ulpiana wins by 2+
7%

Team goals

Gjilani 1+ goals
81%
Gjilani 2+ goals
49%
Gjilani 3+ goals
23%
Ulpiana 1+ goals
61%
Ulpiana 2+ goals
24%
Ulpiana 3+ goals
7%

Draw no bet

Gjilani (draw refunded)
72%
Ulpiana (draw refunded)
28%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals
37%
Both score & under 3
12%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Gjilani at home — creates 1.34, concedes 0.96 · 125 matches

Ulpiana away — creates 0.89, concedes 1.94 · 18 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Gjilani attack 1.34 + Ulpiana defence 1.94 → ÷2 → 1.64

Ulpiana attack 0.89 + Gjilani defence 0.96 → ÷2 → 0.93

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 54%?"

Gjilani scores more
54%
level
25%
Ulpiana scores more
21%

Gjilani at 54% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

  • injuries & suspensions
  • the matchday lineup
  • motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
  • weather & pitch condition
  • in-game coaching decisions

So 54% does not mean "Gjilani will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Probable lineups not yet announced

Starting lineups are usually confirmed ~1 hour before kickoff

Match Recap: Gjilani vs Ulpiana

Gjilani beat Ulpiana 2-0 in Superliga on March 6, 2022.

The match was played at Stadiumi me bar sintetik Gjilan in Gnjilane.