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Gjilani vs Flamurtari — Superliga 2019

Gjilani
Gjilani
FT
2 – 0
Flamurtari
Flamurtari
2/23/2020SuperligaSuperliga · Round 19Stadiumi i qytetit Gjilan

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 17+ matches

Gjilani53%
×Draw24%
Flamurtari22%
✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 5 more than always backing the home side
Model
50.3%
Always home
44.5%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 50.3% correct across 582,450 matches, vs 44.5% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.5% correct · Away picks 49.5% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

Gjilani
1.67
Flamurtari
0.98

Gjilani creates 70% more chances

Season form · 125 home / 17 away

creates per match

Gjilani
1.34
Flamurtari
1.00

allows per match

Gjilani
0.96
Flamurtari
2.00

finishing

Gjilani+0.00on par
Flamurtari+0.00on par

Total goals

51%Under
  • Under51
  • Over49

Close call

Both teams score

51%Yes
  • Yes51
  • No49

Close call

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Gjilani ↓

Flamurtari →
0
1
2
3
4
0
0–07%
0–17%
0–23%
0–31%
0–40%
1
1–012%
1–112%
1–26%
1–32%
1–40%
2
2–010%
2–110%
2–25%
2–32%
2–40%
3
3–05%
3–15%
3–23%
3–31%
3–40%
4
4–02%
4–12%
4–21%
4–30%
4–40%

Most likely 1–0 (12%) · grid covers 97% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5
93%7%1.5
74%26%2.5
49%51%3.5
27%73%4.5
13%87%

Double chance

Gjilani or draw
78%
Gjilani or Flamurtari
76%
Draw or Flamurtari
47%

Winning margin

Gjilani wins by 2+
29%
Flamurtari wins by 2+
8%

Team goals

Gjilani 1+ goals
81%
Gjilani 2+ goals
50%
Gjilani 3+ goals
23%
Flamurtari 1+ goals
62%
Flamurtari 2+ goals
26%
Flamurtari 3+ goals
8%

Draw no bet

Gjilani (draw refunded)
71%
Flamurtari (draw refunded)
29%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals
39%
Both score & under 3
12%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Gjilani at home — creates 1.34, concedes 0.96 · 125 matches

Flamurtari away — creates 1.00, concedes 2.00 · 17 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Gjilani attack 1.34 + Flamurtari defence 2.00 → ÷2 → 1.67

Flamurtari attack 1.00 + Gjilani defence 0.96 → ÷2 → 0.98

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 53%?"

Gjilani scores more
53%
level
24%
Flamurtari scores more
22%

Gjilani at 53% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

  • injuries & suspensions
  • the matchday lineup
  • motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
  • weather & pitch condition
  • in-game coaching decisions

So 53% does not mean "Gjilani will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Probable lineups not yet announced

Starting lineups are usually confirmed ~1 hour before kickoff

Superliga: Gjilani 2–0 Flamurtari

Gjilani beat Flamurtari 2-0 in Superliga on February 23, 2020.

The match was played at Stadiumi i qytetit Gjilan in Gnjilane.