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Gjelleråsen vs Toten — 3. Division - Girone 1 2020

Gjelleråsen
Gjelleråsen
CANC
14:00
Toten
Toten
9/12/20203. Division - Girone 13. Division - Girone 1 · Girone 1 - 6Li kunstgress

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 6+ matches

Gjelleråsen66%
×Draw17%
Toten17%
✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 6 more than always backing the home side
Model
49.7%
Always home
44.3%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 49.7% correct across 106,786 matches, vs 44.3% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.7% correct · Away picks 47.3% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

Gjelleråsen
2.65
Toten
1.29

Gjelleråsen creates 105% more chances

Season form · 19 home / 6 away

creates per match

Gjelleråsen
2.63
Toten
1.33

allows per match

Gjelleråsen
1.26
Toten
2.67

finishing

Gjelleråsen+0.00on par
Toten+0.00on par

Total goals

75%Over
  • Over75
  • Under25

3+ goals likely

Both teams score

67%Yes
  • Yes67
  • No33

Both teams likely to score

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Gjelleråsen ↓

Toten →
0
1
2
3
4
0
0–02%
0–13%
0–22%
0–31%
0–40%
1
1–05%
1–17%
1–24%
1–32%
1–41%
2
2–07%
2–19%
2–26%
2–32%
2–41%
3
3–06%
3–18%
3–25%
3–32%
3–41%
4
4–04%
4–15%
4–23%
4–31%
4–40%

Most likely 2–1 (9%) · grid covers 88% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5
98%2%1.5
90%10%2.5
75%25%3.5
55%45%4.5
35%65%

Double chance

Gjelleråsen or draw
83%
Gjelleråsen or Toten
83%
Draw or Toten
34%

Winning margin

Gjelleråsen wins by 2+
45%
Toten wins by 2+
7%

Team goals

Gjelleråsen 1+ goals
93%
Gjelleråsen 2+ goals
74%
Gjelleråsen 3+ goals
48%
Toten 1+ goals
72%
Toten 2+ goals
37%
Toten 3+ goals
14%

Draw no bet

Gjelleråsen (draw refunded)
80%
Toten (draw refunded)
20%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals
60%
Both score & under 3
7%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Gjelleråsen at home — creates 2.63, concedes 1.26 · 19 matches

Toten away — creates 1.33, concedes 2.67 · 6 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Gjelleråsen attack 2.63 + Toten defence 2.67 → ÷2 → 2.65

Toten attack 1.33 + Gjelleråsen defence 1.26 → ÷2 → 1.29

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 66%?"

Gjelleråsen scores more
66%
level
17%
Toten scores more
17%

Gjelleråsen at 66% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

  • injuries & suspensions
  • the matchday lineup
  • motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
  • weather & pitch condition
  • in-game coaching decisions

So 66% does not mean "Gjelleråsen will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Probable lineups not yet announced

Starting lineups are usually confirmed ~1 hour before kickoff

Gjelleråsen vs Toten — Match Preview

Gjelleråsen face Toten on September 12, 2020 in this 3. Division - Girone 1 fixture. Get live scores, lineups, and real-time match statistics here when the game starts.

Gjelleråsen host Toten at Li kunstgress.

Submit your prediction below — exact score, 1X2, total goals, and both teams to score. Earn XP for correct picks.