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Gjelleråsen vs Spjelkavik — 3. Division - Girone 5 2020

Gjelleråsen
Gjelleråsen
FT
0 – 3
HT: 0 – 1
Spjelkavik
Spjelkavik
A. Amdam 52', 17'
G. Kvalsvik 51'
5/25/20243. Division - Girone 53. Division - Girone 5 · Group 5 - 8Li kunstgress

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 13+ matches

Gjelleråsen30%
×Draw20%
Spjelkavik50%
✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 6 more than always backing the home side
Model
49.7%
Always home
44.3%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 49.7% correct across 106,786 matches, vs 44.3% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.7% correct · Away picks 47.3% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

Gjelleråsen
1.84
Spjelkavik
2.37

Spjelkavik creates 29% more chances

Season form · 13 home / 19 away

creates per match

Gjelleråsen
2.00
Spjelkavik
2.11

allows per match

Gjelleråsen
2.62
Spjelkavik
1.68

finishing

Gjelleråsen+0.00on par
Spjelkavik+0.00on par

Total goals

79%Over
  • Over79
  • Under21

3+ goals likely

Both teams score

76%Yes
  • Yes76
  • No24

Both teams likely to score

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Gjelleråsen ↓

Spjelkavik →
0
1
2
3
4
0
0–02%
0–14%
0–24%
0–33%
0–42%
1
1–03%
1–17%
1–28%
1–36%
1–44%
2
2–03%
2–16%
2–27%
2–36%
2–43%
3
3–02%
3–14%
3–24%
3–33%
3–42%
4
4–01%
4–12%
4–22%
4–32%
4–41%

Most likely 1–2 (8%) · grid covers 88% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5
98%2%1.5
92%8%2.5
79%21%3.5
60%40%4.5
40%60%

Double chance

Gjelleråsen or draw
50%
Gjelleråsen or Spjelkavik
80%
Draw or Spjelkavik
70%

Winning margin

Gjelleråsen wins by 2+
15%
Spjelkavik wins by 2+
30%

Team goals

Gjelleråsen 1+ goals
84%
Gjelleråsen 2+ goals
55%
Gjelleråsen 3+ goals
28%
Spjelkavik 1+ goals
91%
Spjelkavik 2+ goals
68%
Spjelkavik 3+ goals
42%

Draw no bet

Gjelleråsen (draw refunded)
38%
Spjelkavik (draw refunded)
62%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals
70%
Both score & under 3
7%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Gjelleråsen at home — creates 2.00, concedes 2.62 · 13 matches

Spjelkavik away — creates 2.11, concedes 1.68 · 19 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Gjelleråsen attack 2.00 + Spjelkavik defence 1.68 → ÷2 → 1.84

Spjelkavik attack 2.11 + Gjelleråsen defence 2.62 → ÷2 → 2.37

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 50%?"

Gjelleråsen scores more
30%
level
20%
Spjelkavik scores more
50%

Spjelkavik at 50% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

  • injuries & suspensions
  • the matchday lineup
  • motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
  • weather & pitch condition
  • in-game coaching decisions

So 50% does not mean "Spjelkavik will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Match Events

17'
A. Amdam
30'
A. Muratovic
51'
G. Kvalsvik
52'
A. Amdam

Probable lineups not yet announced

Starting lineups are usually confirmed ~1 hour before kickoff

3. Division - Girone 5: Gjelleråsen 0–3 Spjelkavik

Spjelkavik beat Gjelleråsen 3-0 in 3. Division - Girone 5 on May 25, 2024.

Goals: A. Amdam (17', 52'), G. Kvalsvik (51').

The match was played at Li kunstgress in Hagan.