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Gjelleråsen vs Senja — 3. Division - Girone 6 2020

Gjelleråsen
Gjelleråsen
FT
3 – 1
HT: 1 – 0
Senja
Senja
M. Hassan 79'
K. Bjorndalen 60'
M. Nygard 39'
Unknown 90'
9/11/20223. Division - Girone 63. Division - Girone 6 · Girone 6 - 20Li kunstgress

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 13+ matches

Gjelleråsen69%
×Draw16%
Senja16%
✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 6 more than always backing the home side
Model
49.7%
Always home
44.3%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 49.7% correct across 106,786 matches, vs 44.3% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.7% correct · Away picks 47.3% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

Gjelleråsen
3.04
Senja
1.43

Gjelleråsen creates 113% more chances

Season form · 13 home / 13 away

creates per match

Gjelleråsen
3.15
Senja
1.00

allows per match

Gjelleråsen
1.85
Senja
2.92

finishing

Gjelleråsen+0.00on par
Senja+0.00on par

Total goals

82%Over
  • Over82
  • Under18

3+ goals likely

Both teams score

72%Yes
  • Yes72
  • No28

Both teams likely to score

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Gjelleråsen ↓

Senja →
0
1
2
3
4
0
0–01%
0–12%
0–21%
0–31%
0–40%
1
1–04%
1–15%
1–24%
1–32%
1–41%
2
2–05%
2–18%
2–26%
2–33%
2–41%
3
3–06%
3–18%
3–26%
3–33%
3–41%
4
4–04%
4–16%
4–24%
4–32%
4–41%

Most likely 2–1 (8%) · grid covers 83% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5
99%1%1.5
94%6%2.5
82%18%3.5
64%36%4.5
44%56%

Double chance

Gjelleråsen or draw
84%
Gjelleråsen or Senja
84%
Draw or Senja
31%

Winning margin

Gjelleråsen wins by 2+
49%
Senja wins by 2+
6%

Team goals

Gjelleråsen 1+ goals
95%
Gjelleråsen 2+ goals
80%
Gjelleråsen 3+ goals
57%
Senja 1+ goals
76%
Senja 2+ goals
42%
Senja 3+ goals
17%

Draw no bet

Gjelleråsen (draw refunded)
81%
Senja (draw refunded)
19%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals
67%
Both score & under 3
5%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Gjelleråsen at home — creates 3.15, concedes 1.85 · 13 matches

Senja away — creates 1.00, concedes 2.92 · 13 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Gjelleråsen attack 3.15 + Senja defence 2.92 → ÷2 → 3.04

Senja attack 1.00 + Gjelleråsen defence 1.85 → ÷2 → 1.43

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 69%?"

Gjelleråsen scores more
69%
level
16%
Senja scores more
16%

Gjelleråsen at 69% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

  • injuries & suspensions
  • the matchday lineup
  • motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
  • weather & pitch condition
  • in-game coaching decisions

So 69% does not mean "Gjelleråsen will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Match Events

39'
M. Nygard
60'
K. Bjorndalen
79'
M. Hassan
90'

Probable lineups not yet announced

Starting lineups are usually confirmed ~1 hour before kickoff

Match Recap: Gjelleråsen vs Senja

Gjelleråsen beat Senja 3-1 in 3. Division - Girone 6 on September 11, 2022.

Goals: M. Nygard (39'), K. Bjorndalen (60'), M. Hassan (79'), ? (90').

The match was played at Li kunstgress in Hagan.