Gjelleråsen 1–2 Lysekloster: Result & Stats

Gjelleråsen

FT

1 – 2

HT: 1 – 1

Lysekloster

D. Campher 45' (OG)

N. Marthinussen 51'

A. Dang 1'

9/23/2023

3. Division - Girone 1 · Group 1 - 21Li kunstgress

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 13+ matches

Gjelleråsen41%

×Draw22%

Lysekloster38%

✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 6 more than always backing the home side

Model

49.7%

Always home

44.3%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 49.7% correct across 106,786 matches, vs 44.3% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.7% correct · Away picks 47.3% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

GjelleråsenExpected goals in this matchLysekloster

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

1.89

1.82

Gjelleråsen

1.89

Lysekloster

1.82

Both teams create about equally

Season form · 19 home / 13 away

2.63

creates per match

2.38

1.26

allows per match

1.15

creates per match

Gjelleråsen

2.63

Lysekloster

2.38

allows per match

Gjelleråsen

1.26

Lysekloster

1.15

+0.00on par

finishing

+0.00on par

finishing

Gjelleråsen+0.00on par

Lysekloster+0.00on par

Total goals

Over71
Under29

3+ goals likely

Both teams score

Yes71
No29

Both teams likely to score

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Gjelleråsen ↓

Lysekloster →

0

1

2

3

4

0

0–02%

0–14%

0–24%

0–32%

0–41%

1

1–05%

1–18%

1–28%

1–35%

1–42%

2

2–04%

2–18%

2–27%

2–34%

2–42%

3

3–03%

3–15%

3–25%

3–33%

3–41%

4

4–01%

4–12%

4–22%

4–31%

4–41%

Most likely 1–1 (8%) · grid covers 93% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5

98%2%1.5

88%12%2.5

71%29%3.5

50%50%4.5

31%69%

Double chance

Gjelleråsen or draw

62%

Gjelleråsen or Lysekloster

78%

Draw or Lysekloster

59%

Winning margin

Gjelleråsen wins by 2+

22%

Lysekloster wins by 2+

20%

Team goals

Gjelleråsen 1+ goals

85%

Gjelleråsen 2+ goals

56%

Gjelleråsen 3+ goals

29%

Lysekloster 1+ goals

84%

Lysekloster 2+ goals

54%

Lysekloster 3+ goals

27%

Draw no bet

Gjelleråsen (draw refunded)

52%

Lysekloster (draw refunded)

48%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals

63%

Both score & under 3

8%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Gjelleråsen at home — creates 2.63, concedes 1.26 · 19 matches

Lysekloster away — creates 2.38, concedes 1.15 · 13 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Gjelleråsen attack 2.63 + Lysekloster defence 1.15 → ÷2 → 1.89

Lysekloster attack 2.38 + Gjelleråsen defence 1.26 → ÷2 → 1.82

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 41%?"

Gjelleråsen scores more

41%

level

22%

Lysekloster scores more

38%

Gjelleråsen at 41% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

injuries & suspensions
the matchday lineup
motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
weather & pitch condition
in-game coaching decisions

So 41% does not mean "Gjelleråsen will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Match Events

1'

A. Dang

45'

D. CampherOwn goal

51'

N. Marthinussen

Probable lineups not yet announced

Starting lineups are usually confirmed ~1 hour before kickoff