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Gjelleråsen vs Lillestrøm II — 3. Division - Girone 1 2020

Gjelleråsen
Gjelleråsen
FT
0 – 1
Lillestrøm II
Lillestrøm II
10/15/20213. Division - Girone 13. Division - Girone 1 · Girone 1 - 11Li kunstgress

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 19+ matches

Gjelleråsen67%
×Draw16%
Lillestrøm II17%
✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 6 more than always backing the home side
Model
49.7%
Always home
44.3%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 49.7% correct across 106,786 matches, vs 44.3% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.7% correct · Away picks 47.3% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

Gjelleråsen
2.94
Lillestrøm II
1.46

Gjelleråsen creates 101% more chances

Season form · 19 home / 20 away

creates per match

Gjelleråsen
2.63
Lillestrøm II
1.65

allows per match

Gjelleråsen
1.26
Lillestrøm II
3.25

finishing

Gjelleråsen+0.00on par
Lillestrøm II+0.00on par

Total goals

81%Over
  • Over81
  • Under19

3+ goals likely

Both teams score

73%Yes
  • Yes73
  • No27

Both teams likely to score

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Gjelleråsen ↓

Lillestrøm II →
0
1
2
3
4
0
0–01%
0–12%
0–21%
0–31%
0–40%
1
1–04%
1–15%
1–24%
1–32%
1–41%
2
2–05%
2–18%
2–26%
2–33%
2–41%
3
3–05%
3–18%
3–26%
3–33%
3–41%
4
4–04%
4–16%
4–24%
4–32%
4–41%

Most likely 2–1 (8%) · grid covers 84% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5
99%1%1.5
93%7%2.5
81%19%3.5
63%37%4.5
43%57%

Double chance

Gjelleråsen or draw
83%
Gjelleråsen or Lillestrøm II
84%
Draw or Lillestrøm II
33%

Winning margin

Gjelleråsen wins by 2+
47%
Lillestrøm II wins by 2+
7%

Team goals

Gjelleråsen 1+ goals
95%
Gjelleråsen 2+ goals
79%
Gjelleråsen 3+ goals
55%
Lillestrøm II 1+ goals
77%
Lillestrøm II 2+ goals
43%
Lillestrøm II 3+ goals
18%

Draw no bet

Gjelleråsen (draw refunded)
80%
Lillestrøm II (draw refunded)
20%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals
67%
Both score & under 3
5%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Gjelleråsen at home — creates 2.63, concedes 1.26 · 19 matches

Lillestrøm II away — creates 1.65, concedes 3.25 · 20 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Gjelleråsen attack 2.63 + Lillestrøm II defence 3.25 → ÷2 → 2.94

Lillestrøm II attack 1.65 + Gjelleråsen defence 1.26 → ÷2 → 1.46

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 67%?"

Gjelleråsen scores more
67%
level
16%
Lillestrøm II scores more
17%

Gjelleråsen at 67% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

  • injuries & suspensions
  • the matchday lineup
  • motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
  • weather & pitch condition
  • in-game coaching decisions

So 67% does not mean "Gjelleråsen will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Probable lineups not yet announced

Starting lineups are usually confirmed ~1 hour before kickoff

Match Recap: Gjelleråsen vs Lillestrøm II

Lillestrøm II beat Gjelleråsen 1-0 in 3. Division - Girone 1 on October 15, 2021.

The match was played at Li kunstgress in Hagan.