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Gjelleråsen vs Lørenskog — 3. Division - Girone 6 2020

Gjelleråsen
Gjelleråsen
FT
2 – 1
HT: 0 – 1
Lørenskog
Lørenskog
T. J. Bright-Taylor 86'
E. Akvag 75'
J. Martin 39'
4/14/20223. Division - Girone 63. Division - Girone 6 · Girone 6 - 2Li kunstgress

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 13+ matches

Gjelleråsen46%
×Draw20%
Lørenskog34%
✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 6 more than always backing the home side
Model
49.7%
Always home
44.3%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 49.7% correct across 106,786 matches, vs 44.3% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.7% correct · Away picks 47.3% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

Gjelleråsen
2.37
Lørenskog
2.04

Gjelleråsen creates 16% more chances

Season form · 13 home / 26 away

creates per match

Gjelleråsen
3.15
Lørenskog
2.23

allows per match

Gjelleråsen
1.85
Lørenskog
1.58

finishing

Gjelleråsen+0.00on par
Lørenskog+0.00on par

Total goals

81%Over
  • Over81
  • Under19

3+ goals likely

Both teams score

79%Yes
  • Yes79
  • No21

Both teams likely to score

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Gjelleråsen ↓

Lørenskog →
0
1
2
3
4
0
0–01%
0–13%
0–23%
0–32%
0–41%
1
1–03%
1–16%
1–26%
1–34%
1–42%
2
2–03%
2–17%
2–27%
2–35%
2–43%
3
3–03%
3–16%
3–26%
3–34%
3–42%
4
4–02%
4–13%
4–23%
4–32%
4–41%

Most likely 2–1 (7%) · grid covers 87% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5
99%1%1.5
93%7%2.5
81%19%3.5
64%36%4.5
44%56%

Double chance

Gjelleråsen or draw
66%
Gjelleråsen or Lørenskog
80%
Draw or Lørenskog
54%

Winning margin

Gjelleråsen wins by 2+
27%
Lørenskog wins by 2+
18%

Team goals

Gjelleråsen 1+ goals
91%
Gjelleråsen 2+ goals
68%
Gjelleråsen 3+ goals
42%
Lørenskog 1+ goals
87%
Lørenskog 2+ goals
60%
Lørenskog 3+ goals
33%

Draw no bet

Gjelleråsen (draw refunded)
57%
Lørenskog (draw refunded)
43%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals
73%
Both score & under 3
6%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Gjelleråsen at home — creates 3.15, concedes 1.85 · 13 matches

Lørenskog away — creates 2.23, concedes 1.58 · 26 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Gjelleråsen attack 3.15 + Lørenskog defence 1.58 → ÷2 → 2.37

Lørenskog attack 2.23 + Gjelleråsen defence 1.85 → ÷2 → 2.04

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 46%?"

Gjelleråsen scores more
46%
level
20%
Lørenskog scores more
34%

Gjelleråsen at 46% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

  • injuries & suspensions
  • the matchday lineup
  • motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
  • weather & pitch condition
  • in-game coaching decisions

So 46% does not mean "Gjelleråsen will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Match Events

39'
J. Martin
75'
E. Akvag
86'
T. J. Bright-Taylor

Probable lineups not yet announced

Starting lineups are usually confirmed ~1 hour before kickoff

3. Division - Girone 6: Gjelleråsen 2–1 Lørenskog

Gjelleråsen beat Lørenskog 2-1 in 3. Division - Girone 6 on April 14, 2022.

Goals: J. Martin (39'), E. Akvag (75'), T. J. Bright-Taylor (86').

The match was played at Li kunstgress in Hagan.