Gjelleråsen 2–1 Harstad: Result & Stats

Gjelleråsen

FT

2 – 1

HT: 1 – 0

Harstad

M. Hassan 90+1'

E. Akvag 38'

T. Windstad 89' (pen)

10/9/2022

3. Division - Girone 6 · Girone 6 - 24Li kunstgress

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 13+ matches

Gjelleråsen58%

×Draw18%

Harstad24%

✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 6 more than always backing the home side

Model

49.7%

Always home

44.3%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 49.7% correct across 106,786 matches, vs 44.3% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.7% correct · Away picks 47.3% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

GjelleråsenExpected goals in this matchHarstad

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

2.71

1.72

Gjelleråsen

2.71

Harstad

1.72

Gjelleråsen creates 58% more chances

Season form · 13 home / 26 away

3.15

creates per match

1.58

1.85

allows per match

2.27

creates per match

Gjelleråsen

3.15

Harstad

1.58

allows per match

Gjelleråsen

1.85

Harstad

2.27

+0.00on par

finishing

+0.00on par

finishing

Gjelleråsen+0.00on par

Harstad+0.00on par

Total goals

Over81
Under19

3+ goals likely

Both teams score

Yes76
No24

Both teams likely to score

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Gjelleråsen ↓

Harstad →

0

1

2

3

4

0

0–01%

0–12%

0–22%

0–31%

0–40%

1

1–03%

1–16%

1–25%

1–33%

1–41%

2

2–04%

2–18%

2–27%

2–34%

2–42%

3

3–04%

3–17%

3–26%

3–33%

3–41%

4

4–03%

4–15%

4–24%

4–32%

4–41%

Most likely 2–1 (8%) · grid covers 85% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5

99%1%1.5

93%7%2.5

81%19%3.5

64%36%4.5

44%56%

Double chance

Gjelleråsen or draw

76%

Gjelleråsen or Harstad

82%

Draw or Harstad

42%

Winning margin

Gjelleråsen wins by 2+

38%

Harstad wins by 2+

11%

Team goals

Gjelleråsen 1+ goals

93%

Gjelleråsen 2+ goals

75%

Gjelleråsen 3+ goals

50%

Harstad 1+ goals

82%

Harstad 2+ goals

51%

Harstad 3+ goals

25%

Draw no bet

Gjelleråsen (draw refunded)

71%

Harstad (draw refunded)

29%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals

71%

Both score & under 3

6%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Gjelleråsen at home — creates 3.15, concedes 1.85 · 13 matches

Harstad away — creates 1.58, concedes 2.27 · 26 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Gjelleråsen attack 3.15 + Harstad defence 2.27 → ÷2 → 2.71

Harstad attack 1.58 + Gjelleråsen defence 1.85 → ÷2 → 1.72

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 58%?"

Gjelleråsen scores more

58%

level

18%

Harstad scores more

24%

Gjelleråsen at 58% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

injuries & suspensions
the matchday lineup
motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
weather & pitch condition
in-game coaching decisions

So 58% does not mean "Gjelleråsen will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Match Events

38'

E. Akvag

89'

T. WindstadPenalty

90+1'

M. Hassan

Probable lineups not yet announced

Starting lineups are usually confirmed ~1 hour before kickoff