Gjøvik-Lyn 7–1 Raufoss II: Result & Stats

Gjøvik-Lyn

FT

7 – 1

Raufoss II

8/29/2021

3. Division - Girone 1 · Girone 1 - 4Gjøvik stadion

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 7+ matches

Gjøvik-Lyn82%

×Draw11%

Raufoss II7%

✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 6 more than always backing the home side

Model

49.7%

Always home

44.3%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 49.7% correct across 106,786 matches, vs 44.3% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.7% correct · Away picks 47.3% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Gjøvik-LynExpected goals in this matchRaufoss II

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

3.35

0.92

Gjøvik-Lyn

3.35

Raufoss II

0.92

Gjøvik-Lyn creates 264% more chances

Season form · 7 home / 7 away

4.14

creates per match

1.14

0.71

allows per match

2.57

creates per match

Gjøvik-Lyn

4.14

Raufoss II

1.14

allows per match

Gjøvik-Lyn

0.71

Raufoss II

2.57

+0.00on par

finishing

+0.00on par

finishing

Gjøvik-Lyn+0.00on par

Raufoss II+0.00on par

Total goals

Over79
Under21

3+ goals likely

Both teams score

Yes58
No42

Both teams likely to score

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Gjøvik-Lyn ↓

Raufoss II →

0

1

2

3

4

0

0–01%

0–11%

0–21%

0–30%

0–40%

1

1–05%

1–15%

1–22%

1–31%

1–40%

2

2–08%

2–18%

2–24%

2–31%

2–40%

3

3–09%

3–19%

3–24%

3–31%

3–40%

4

4–08%

4–17%

4–23%

4–31%

4–40%

Most likely 3–0 (9%) · grid covers 79% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5

99%1%1.5

92%8%2.5

79%21%3.5

60%40%4.5

39%61%

Double chance

Gjøvik-Lyn or draw

93%

Gjøvik-Lyn or Raufoss II

89%

Draw or Raufoss II

18%

Winning margin

Gjøvik-Lyn wins by 2+

64%

Raufoss II wins by 2+

2%

Team goals

Gjøvik-Lyn 1+ goals

96%

Gjøvik-Lyn 2+ goals

84%

Gjøvik-Lyn 3+ goals

63%

Raufoss II 1+ goals

60%

Raufoss II 2+ goals

23%

Raufoss II 3+ goals

7%

Draw no bet

Gjøvik-Lyn (draw refunded)

92%

Raufoss II (draw refunded)

8%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals

53%

Both score & under 3

5%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Gjøvik-Lyn at home — creates 4.14, concedes 0.71 · 7 matches

Raufoss II away — creates 1.14, concedes 2.57 · 7 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Gjøvik-Lyn attack 4.14 + Raufoss II defence 2.57 → ÷2 → 3.35

Raufoss II attack 1.14 + Gjøvik-Lyn defence 0.71 → ÷2 → 0.92

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 82%?"

Gjøvik-Lyn scores more

82%

level

11%

Raufoss II scores more

7%

Gjøvik-Lyn at 82% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

injuries & suspensions
the matchday lineup
motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
weather & pitch condition
in-game coaching decisions

So 82% does not mean "Gjøvik-Lyn will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Probable lineups not yet announced

Starting lineups are usually confirmed ~1 hour before kickoff