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Gjøvik-Lyn vs HamKam II — 3. Division - Girone 3 2020

Gjøvik-Lyn
Gjøvik-Lyn
FT
1 – 0
HT: 1 – 0
HamKam II
HamKam II
9/29/20253. Division - Girone 33. Division - Girone 3 · Group 3 - 22Gjøvik stadion

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 13+ matches

Gjøvik-Lyn75%
×Draw14%
HamKam II10%
✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 6 more than always backing the home side
Model
49.7%
Always home
44.3%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 49.7% correct across 106,786 matches, vs 44.3% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.7% correct · Away picks 47.3% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

Gjøvik-Lyn
2.84
HamKam II
0.96

Gjøvik-Lyn creates 196% more chances

Season form · 13 home / 13 away

creates per match

Gjøvik-Lyn
3.00
HamKam II
1.54

allows per match

Gjøvik-Lyn
0.38
HamKam II
2.69

finishing

Gjøvik-Lyn+0.00on par
HamKam II+0.00on par

Total goals

72%Over
  • Over72
  • Under28

3+ goals likely

Both teams score

58%Yes
  • Yes58
  • No42

Both teams likely to score

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Gjøvik-Lyn ↓

HamKam II →
0
1
2
3
4
0
0–02%
0–12%
0–21%
0–30%
0–40%
1
1–07%
1–16%
1–23%
1–31%
1–40%
2
2–09%
2–19%
2–24%
2–31%
2–40%
3
3–09%
3–18%
3–24%
3–31%
3–40%
4
4–06%
4–16%
4–23%
4–31%
4–40%

Most likely 2–0 (9%) · grid covers 86% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5
98%2%1.5
89%11%2.5
72%28%3.5
51%49%4.5
31%69%

Double chance

Gjøvik-Lyn or draw
90%
Gjøvik-Lyn or HamKam II
86%
Draw or HamKam II
25%

Winning margin

Gjøvik-Lyn wins by 2+
55%
HamKam II wins by 2+
3%

Team goals

Gjøvik-Lyn 1+ goals
94%
Gjøvik-Lyn 2+ goals
77%
Gjøvik-Lyn 3+ goals
53%
HamKam II 1+ goals
62%
HamKam II 2+ goals
25%
HamKam II 3+ goals
7%

Draw no bet

Gjøvik-Lyn (draw refunded)
88%
HamKam II (draw refunded)
12%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals
52%
Both score & under 3
6%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Gjøvik-Lyn at home — creates 3.00, concedes 0.38 · 13 matches

HamKam II away — creates 1.54, concedes 2.69 · 13 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Gjøvik-Lyn attack 3.00 + HamKam II defence 2.69 → ÷2 → 2.84

HamKam II attack 1.54 + Gjøvik-Lyn defence 0.38 → ÷2 → 0.96

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 75%?"

Gjøvik-Lyn scores more
75%
level
14%
HamKam II scores more
10%

Gjøvik-Lyn at 75% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

  • injuries & suspensions
  • the matchday lineup
  • motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
  • weather & pitch condition
  • in-game coaching decisions

So 75% does not mean "Gjøvik-Lyn will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Probable lineups not yet announced

Starting lineups are usually confirmed ~1 hour before kickoff

Match Recap: Gjøvik-Lyn vs HamKam II

Gjøvik-Lyn beat HamKam II 1-0 in 3. Division - Girone 3 on September 29, 2025.

The match was played at Gjøvik stadion in Gjøvik.