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Gjøvik-Lyn vs Grorud II — 3. Division - Girone 1 2020

Gjøvik-Lyn
Gjøvik-Lyn
FT
4 – 1
Grorud II
Grorud II
9/12/20213. Division - Girone 13. Division - Girone 1 · Girone 1 - 6Gjøvik stadion

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 7+ matches

Gjøvik-Lyn75%
×Draw14%
Grorud II12%
✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 6 more than always backing the home side
Model
49.7%
Always home
44.3%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 49.7% correct across 106,786 matches, vs 44.3% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.7% correct · Away picks 47.3% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

Gjøvik-Lyn
3.29
Grorud II
1.29

Gjøvik-Lyn creates 155% more chances

Season form · 7 home / 33 away

creates per match

Gjøvik-Lyn
4.14
Grorud II
1.88

allows per match

Gjøvik-Lyn
0.71
Grorud II
2.45

finishing

Gjøvik-Lyn+0.00on par
Grorud II+0.00on par

Total goals

83%Over
  • Over83
  • Under17

3+ goals likely

Both teams score

70%Yes
  • Yes70
  • No30

Both teams likely to score

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Gjøvik-Lyn ↓

Grorud II →
0
1
2
3
4
0
0–01%
0–11%
0–21%
0–30%
0–40%
1
1–04%
1–15%
1–23%
1–31%
1–40%
2
2–06%
2–18%
2–25%
2–32%
2–41%
3
3–06%
3–18%
3–25%
3–32%
3–41%
4
4–05%
4–17%
4–24%
4–32%
4–41%

Most likely 2–1 (8%) · grid covers 80% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5
99%1%1.5
94%6%2.5
83%17%3.5
65%35%4.5
46%54%

Double chance

Gjøvik-Lyn or draw
88%
Gjøvik-Lyn or Grorud II
86%
Draw or Grorud II
25%

Winning margin

Gjøvik-Lyn wins by 2+
56%
Grorud II wins by 2+
4%

Team goals

Gjøvik-Lyn 1+ goals
96%
Gjøvik-Lyn 2+ goals
83%
Gjøvik-Lyn 3+ goals
62%
Grorud II 1+ goals
72%
Grorud II 2+ goals
37%
Grorud II 3+ goals
14%

Draw no bet

Gjøvik-Lyn (draw refunded)
86%
Grorud II (draw refunded)
14%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals
65%
Both score & under 3
5%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Gjøvik-Lyn at home — creates 4.14, concedes 0.71 · 7 matches

Grorud II away — creates 1.88, concedes 2.45 · 33 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Gjøvik-Lyn attack 4.14 + Grorud II defence 2.45 → ÷2 → 3.29

Grorud II attack 1.88 + Gjøvik-Lyn defence 0.71 → ÷2 → 1.29

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 75%?"

Gjøvik-Lyn scores more
75%
level
14%
Grorud II scores more
12%

Gjøvik-Lyn at 75% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

  • injuries & suspensions
  • the matchday lineup
  • motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
  • weather & pitch condition
  • in-game coaching decisions

So 75% does not mean "Gjøvik-Lyn will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Probable lineups not yet announced

Starting lineups are usually confirmed ~1 hour before kickoff

Match Recap: Gjøvik-Lyn vs Grorud II

Gjøvik-Lyn beat Grorud II 4-1 in 3. Division - Girone 1 on September 12, 2021.

The match was played at Gjøvik stadion in Gjøvik.