Gjøvik-Lyn 2–0 Åssiden IF: Result & Stats

Gjøvik-Lyn

FT

2 – 0

HT: 0 – 0

Åssiden IF

4/5/2025

3. Division - Girone 3 · Group 3 - 2Gjøvik stadion

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 13+ matches

Gjøvik-Lyn77%

×Draw14%

Åssiden IF9%

✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 6 more than always backing the home side

Model

49.7%

Always home

44.3%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 49.7% correct across 106,786 matches, vs 44.3% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.7% correct · Away picks 47.3% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Gjøvik-LynExpected goals in this matchÅssiden IF

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

2.92

0.92

Gjøvik-Lyn

2.92

Åssiden IF

0.92

Gjøvik-Lyn creates 217% more chances

Season form · 13 home / 26 away

3.00

creates per match

1.46

0.38

allows per match

2.85

creates per match

Gjøvik-Lyn

3.00

Åssiden IF

1.46

allows per match

Gjøvik-Lyn

0.38

Åssiden IF

2.85

+0.00on par

finishing

+0.00on par

finishing

Gjøvik-Lyn+0.00on par

Åssiden IF+0.00on par

Total goals

Over73
Under27

3+ goals likely

Both teams score

Yes57
No43

Both teams likely to score

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Gjøvik-Lyn ↓

Åssiden IF →

0

1

2

3

4

0

0–02%

0–12%

0–21%

0–30%

0–40%

1

1–06%

1–16%

1–23%

1–31%

1–40%

2

2–09%

2–19%

2–24%

2–31%

2–40%

3

3–09%

3–18%

3–24%

3–31%

3–40%

4

4–07%

4–16%

4–23%

4–31%

4–40%

Most likely 2–0 (9%) · grid covers 85% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5

98%2%1.5

89%11%2.5

73%27%3.5

52%48%4.5

32%68%

Double chance

Gjøvik-Lyn or draw

91%

Gjøvik-Lyn or Åssiden IF

86%

Draw or Åssiden IF

23%

Winning margin

Gjøvik-Lyn wins by 2+

57%

Åssiden IF wins by 2+

3%

Team goals

Gjøvik-Lyn 1+ goals

94%

Gjøvik-Lyn 2+ goals

78%

Gjøvik-Lyn 3+ goals

55%

Åssiden IF 1+ goals

60%

Åssiden IF 2+ goals

23%

Åssiden IF 3+ goals

7%

Draw no bet

Gjøvik-Lyn (draw refunded)

89%

Åssiden IF (draw refunded)

11%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals

51%

Both score & under 3

6%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Gjøvik-Lyn at home — creates 3.00, concedes 0.38 · 13 matches

Åssiden IF away — creates 1.46, concedes 2.85 · 26 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Gjøvik-Lyn attack 3.00 + Åssiden IF defence 2.85 → ÷2 → 2.92

Åssiden IF attack 1.46 + Gjøvik-Lyn defence 0.38 → ÷2 → 0.92

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 77%?"

Gjøvik-Lyn scores more

77%

level

14%

Åssiden IF scores more

9%

Gjøvik-Lyn at 77% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

injuries & suspensions
the matchday lineup
motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
weather & pitch condition
in-game coaching decisions

So 77% does not mean "Gjøvik-Lyn will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Probable lineups not yet announced

Starting lineups are usually confirmed ~1 hour before kickoff