Scoreo
FootballHockeyTennisBasketballVolleyballHandballBaseballRugbyMMAFormula 1

Giugliano vs Aprilia — Serie D - Girone G 2019

Giugliano
Giugliano
FT
1 – 1
Aprilia
Aprilia
11/21/2021Serie D - Girone GSerie D - Girone G · Group G - 10Stadio Comunale Alberto De Cristofaro

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 17+ matches

Giugliano60%
×Draw24%
Aprilia16%
✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 6 more than always backing the home side
Model
49.7%
Always home
44.3%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 49.7% correct across 106,786 matches, vs 44.3% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.7% correct · Away picks 47.3% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

Giugliano
1.68
Aprilia
0.72

Giugliano creates 133% more chances

Season form · 17 home / 47 away

creates per match

Giugliano
2.06
Aprilia
1.09

allows per match

Giugliano
0.35
Aprilia
1.30

finishing

Giugliano+0.00on par
Aprilia+0.00on par

Total goals

57%Under
  • Under57
  • Over43

Fewer than 3 goals likely

Both teams score

58%No
  • No58
  • Yes42

One side may not score

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Giugliano ↓

Aprilia →
0
1
2
3
4
0
0–09%
0–17%
0–22%
0–31%
0–40%
1
1–015%
1–111%
1–24%
1–31%
1–40%
2
2–013%
2–19%
2–23%
2–31%
2–40%
3
3–07%
3–15%
3–22%
3–30%
3–40%
4
4–03%
4–12%
4–21%
4–30%
4–40%

Most likely 1–0 (15%) · grid covers 97% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5
91%9%1.5
69%31%2.5
43%57%3.5
22%78%4.5
9%91%

Double chance

Giugliano or draw
84%
Giugliano or Aprilia
76%
Draw or Aprilia
40%

Winning margin

Giugliano wins by 2+
34%
Aprilia wins by 2+
4%

Team goals

Giugliano 1+ goals
81%
Giugliano 2+ goals
50%
Giugliano 3+ goals
24%
Aprilia 1+ goals
51%
Aprilia 2+ goals
16%
Aprilia 3+ goals
4%

Draw no bet

Giugliano (draw refunded)
79%
Aprilia (draw refunded)
21%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals
31%
Both score & under 3
11%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Giugliano at home — creates 2.06, concedes 0.35 · 17 matches

Aprilia away — creates 1.09, concedes 1.30 · 47 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Giugliano attack 2.06 + Aprilia defence 1.30 → ÷2 → 1.68

Aprilia attack 1.09 + Giugliano defence 0.35 → ÷2 → 0.72

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 60%?"

Giugliano scores more
60%
level
24%
Aprilia scores more
16%

Giugliano at 60% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

  • injuries & suspensions
  • the matchday lineup
  • motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
  • weather & pitch condition
  • in-game coaching decisions

So 60% does not mean "Giugliano will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Probable lineups not yet announced

Starting lineups are usually confirmed ~1 hour before kickoff

Serie D - Girone G: Giugliano 1–1 Aprilia

Giugliano and Aprilia drew 1-1 in Serie D - Girone G on November 21, 2021.

The match was played at Stadio Comunale Alberto De Cristofaro in Giugliano in Campania.