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Giugliano vs Afragolese — Serie D - Girone G 2019

Giugliano
Giugliano
FT
2 – 0
HT: 1 – 0
Afragolese
Afragolese
3/30/2022Serie D - Girone GSerie D - Girone G · Group G - 26Stadio Comunale Alberto De Cristofaro

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 17+ matches

Giugliano62%
×Draw22%
Afragolese15%
✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 6 more than always backing the home side
Model
49.7%
Always home
44.3%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 49.7% correct across 106,786 matches, vs 44.3% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.7% correct · Away picks 47.3% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

Giugliano
1.85
Afragolese
0.79

Giugliano creates 134% more chances

Season form · 17 home / 17 away

creates per match

Giugliano
2.06
Afragolese
1.24

allows per match

Giugliano
0.35
Afragolese
1.65

finishing

Giugliano+0.00on par
Afragolese+0.00on par

Total goals

51%Under
  • Under51
  • Over49

Close call

Both teams score

54%No
  • No54
  • Yes46

One side may not score

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Giugliano ↓

Afragolese →
0
1
2
3
4
0
0–07%
0–16%
0–22%
0–31%
0–40%
1
1–013%
1–110%
1–24%
1–31%
1–40%
2
2–012%
2–110%
2–24%
2–31%
2–40%
3
3–08%
3–16%
3–22%
3–31%
3–40%
4
4–03%
4–13%
4–21%
4–30%
4–40%

Most likely 1–0 (13%) · grid covers 96% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5
93%7%1.5
74%26%2.5
49%51%3.5
27%73%4.5
13%87%

Double chance

Giugliano or draw
85%
Giugliano or Afragolese
78%
Draw or Afragolese
38%

Winning margin

Giugliano wins by 2+
37%
Afragolese wins by 2+
5%

Team goals

Giugliano 1+ goals
84%
Giugliano 2+ goals
55%
Giugliano 3+ goals
28%
Afragolese 1+ goals
55%
Afragolese 2+ goals
19%
Afragolese 3+ goals
5%

Draw no bet

Giugliano (draw refunded)
80%
Afragolese (draw refunded)
20%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals
36%
Both score & under 3
10%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Giugliano at home — creates 2.06, concedes 0.35 · 17 matches

Afragolese away — creates 1.24, concedes 1.65 · 17 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Giugliano attack 2.06 + Afragolese defence 1.65 → ÷2 → 1.85

Afragolese attack 1.24 + Giugliano defence 0.35 → ÷2 → 0.79

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 62%?"

Giugliano scores more
62%
level
22%
Afragolese scores more
15%

Giugliano at 62% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

  • injuries & suspensions
  • the matchday lineup
  • motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
  • weather & pitch condition
  • in-game coaching decisions

So 62% does not mean "Giugliano will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Probable lineups not yet announced

Starting lineups are usually confirmed ~1 hour before kickoff

Serie D - Girone G: Giugliano 2–0 Afragolese

Giugliano beat Afragolese 2-0 in Serie D - Girone G on March 30, 2022.

The match was played at Stadio Comunale Alberto De Cristofaro in Giugliano in Campania.