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Girona II vs Vilassar Mar — Tercera División RFEF - Group 5 2019

Girona II
Girona II
FT
3 – 0
HT: 1 – 0
Vilassar Mar
Vilassar Mar
9/29/2024Tercera División RFEF - Group 5Tercera División RFEF - Group 5 · Group 5 - 4Campo Municipal Riudarenes

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 78+ matches

Girona II47%
×Draw26%
Vilassar Mar26%
✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 5 more than always backing the home side
Model
50.3%
Always home
44.5%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 50.3% correct across 582,450 matches, vs 44.5% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.5% correct · Away picks 49.5% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

Girona II
1.46
Vilassar Mar
1.02

Girona II creates 43% more chances

Season form · 78 home / 109 away

creates per match

Girona II
1.72
Vilassar Mar
0.92

allows per match

Girona II
1.13
Vilassar Mar
1.19

finishing

Girona II+0.00on par
Vilassar Mar+0.00on par

Total goals

55%Under
  • Under55
  • Over45

Fewer than 3 goals likely

Both teams score

51%No
  • No51
  • Yes49

Close call

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Girona II ↓

Vilassar Mar →
0
1
2
3
4
0
0–08%
0–19%
0–24%
0–31%
0–40%
1
1–012%
1–112%
1–26%
1–32%
1–41%
2
2–09%
2–19%
2–25%
2–32%
2–40%
3
3–04%
3–14%
3–22%
3–31%
3–40%
4
4–02%
4–12%
4–21%
4–30%
4–40%

Most likely 1–0 (12%) · grid covers 98% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5
92%8%1.5
71%29%2.5
45%55%3.5
24%76%4.5
11%89%

Double chance

Girona II or draw
74%
Girona II or Vilassar Mar
74%
Draw or Vilassar Mar
53%

Winning margin

Girona II wins by 2+
23%
Vilassar Mar wins by 2+
10%

Team goals

Girona II 1+ goals
77%
Girona II 2+ goals
43%
Girona II 3+ goals
18%
Vilassar Mar 1+ goals
64%
Vilassar Mar 2+ goals
27%
Vilassar Mar 3+ goals
8%

Draw no bet

Girona II (draw refunded)
64%
Vilassar Mar (draw refunded)
36%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals
37%
Both score & under 3
12%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Girona II at home — creates 1.72, concedes 1.13 · 78 matches

Vilassar Mar away — creates 0.92, concedes 1.19 · 109 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Girona II attack 1.72 + Vilassar Mar defence 1.19 → ÷2 → 1.46

Vilassar Mar attack 0.92 + Girona II defence 1.13 → ÷2 → 1.02

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 47%?"

Girona II scores more
47%
level
26%
Vilassar Mar scores more
26%

Girona II at 47% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

  • injuries & suspensions
  • the matchday lineup
  • motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
  • weather & pitch condition
  • in-game coaching decisions

So 47% does not mean "Girona II will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Probable lineups not yet announced

Starting lineups are usually confirmed ~1 hour before kickoff

Match Recap: Girona II vs Vilassar Mar

Girona II beat Vilassar Mar 3-0 in Tercera División RFEF - Group 5 on September 29, 2024.

The match was played at Campo Municipal Riudarenes in Riudarenes.