Girona II 0–1 Reddis: Result & Stats

Girona II

0 – 1

HT: 0 – 0

Reddis

Ramón Folch 66' (pen)

1/21/2024

Tercera División RFEF - Group 5 · Group 5 - 17Campo Municipal Riudarenes

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 34+ matches

Girona II43%

×Draw27%

Reddis31%

✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 6 more than always backing the home side

Model

49.7%

Always home

44.3%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 49.7% correct across 106,786 matches, vs 44.3% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.7% correct · Away picks 47.3% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Girona IIExpected goals in this matchReddis

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

1.39

1.14

Girona II

1.39

Reddis

1.14

Girona II creates 22% more chances

Season form · 78 home / 34 away

1.72

creates per match

1.15

1.13

allows per match

1.06

creates per match

Girona II

1.72

Reddis

1.15

allows per match

Girona II

1.13

Reddis

1.06

+0.00on par

finishing

+0.00on par

finishing

Girona II+0.00on par

Reddis+0.00on par

Total goals

Under54
Over46

Fewer than 3 goals likely

Both teams score

Yes51
No49

Close call

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Girona II ↓

Reddis →

0–08%

0–19%

0–25%

0–32%

0–41%

1–011%

1–113%

1–27%

1–33%

1–41%

2–08%

2–19%

2–25%

2–32%

2–41%

3–04%

3–14%

3–22%

3–31%

3–40%

4–01%

4–11%

4–21%

4–30%

4–40%

Most likely 1–1 (13%) · grid covers 98% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5

92%8%1.5

72%28%2.5

46%54%3.5

25%75%4.5

11%89%

Double chance

Girona II or draw

69%

Girona II or Reddis

73%

Draw or Reddis

57%

Winning margin

Girona II wins by 2+

20%

Reddis wins by 2+

12%

Team goals

Girona II 1+ goals

75%

Girona II 2+ goals

40%

Girona II 3+ goals

16%

Reddis 1+ goals

68%

Reddis 2+ goals

32%

Reddis 3+ goals

11%

Draw no bet

Girona II (draw refunded)

58%

Reddis (draw refunded)

42%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals

38%

Both score & under 3

13%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

Recent form of each side

Girona II at home — creates 1.72, concedes 1.13 · 78 matches

Reddis away — creates 1.15, concedes 1.06 · 34 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

Expected goals for this match

Girona II attack 1.72 + Reddis defence 1.06 → ÷2 → 1.39

Reddis attack 1.15 + Girona II defence 1.13 → ÷2 → 1.14

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

The answer to "why 43%?"

Girona II scores more

43%

level

27%

Reddis scores more

31%

Girona II at 43% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

injuries & suspensions
the matchday lineup
motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
weather & pitch condition
in-game coaching decisions

So 43% does not mean "Girona II will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Match Events

66'

Ramón FolchPenalty

70'

M. Kébé← Marc Alegre

70'

W. Suzuki← Enric García

72'

Ramón Sardà← H. Toivonen

76'

Oriol Comas← Miguel Sánchez

76'

Kim Min-Su← Marc Aznar

79'

M. Rosales← Alberto Benito

79'

Dani Argilaga← Nico Díaz

79'

Albert Miravent← Pol Benito

85'

Sergi Solans← Carles Garrido

88'

Ion Perelló← Aitor Serrano

Girona

Reddis

▼

⚽

▼

▼

▼

▼

▼

▼

▼

▼

▼

Manager: Sergi Mora

70'▲M. Kébé←▼Marc Alegre

70'▲W. Suzuki←▼Enric García

76'▲Oriol Comas←▼Miguel Sánchez

76'▲Kim Min-Su←▼Marc Aznar

85'▲Sergi Solans←▼Carles Garrido

Girona II substitutes

KébéSuzukiComasMin-SuSolans

Manager: Marc Carrasco

72'▲Ramón Sardà←▼H. Toivonen

79'▲M. Rosales←▼Alberto Benito

79'▲Dani Argilaga←▼Nico Díaz

79'▲Albert Miravent←▼Pol Benito

88'▲Ion Perelló←▼Aitor Serrano

Reddis substitutes

SardàRosalesArgilagaMiraventPerelló

Match Recap: Girona II vs Reddis

Reddis beat Girona II 1-0 in Tercera División RFEF - Group 5 on January 21, 2024.

Goals: Ramón Folch (66' pen).

The match was played at Campo Municipal Riudarenes in Riudarenes.

Girona II vs Reddis — Tercera División RFEF - Group 5 2019

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Total goals

Both teams score

Match Events

Head to Head

Match Recap: Girona II vs Reddis