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Girona II vs Peralada — Tercera División RFEF - Group 5 2019

Girona II
Girona II
FT
1 – 1
HT: 1 – 0
Peralada
Peralada
3/3/2024Tercera División RFEF - Group 5Tercera División RFEF - Group 5 · Group 5 - 23Campo Municipal Riudarenes

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 78+ matches

Girona II44%
×Draw27%
Peralada29%
✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 5 more than always backing the home side
Model
50.3%
Always home
44.5%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 50.3% correct across 582,450 matches, vs 44.5% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.5% correct · Away picks 49.5% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

Girona II
1.38
Peralada
1.07

Girona II creates 29% more chances

Season form · 78 home / 110 away

creates per match

Girona II
1.72
Peralada
1.01

allows per match

Girona II
1.13
Peralada
1.04

finishing

Girona II+0.00on par
Peralada+0.00on par

Total goals

56%Under
  • Under56
  • Over44

Fewer than 3 goals likely

Both teams score

51%No
  • No51
  • Yes49

Close call

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Girona II ↓

Peralada →
0
1
2
3
4
0
0–09%
0–19%
0–25%
0–32%
0–40%
1
1–012%
1–113%
1–27%
1–32%
1–41%
2
2–08%
2–19%
2–25%
2–32%
2–40%
3
3–04%
3–14%
3–22%
3–31%
3–40%
4
4–01%
4–11%
4–21%
4–30%
4–40%

Most likely 1–1 (13%) · grid covers 98% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5
91%9%1.5
70%30%2.5
44%56%3.5
23%77%4.5
10%90%

Double chance

Girona II or draw
71%
Girona II or Peralada
73%
Draw or Peralada
56%

Winning margin

Girona II wins by 2+
21%
Peralada wins by 2+
11%

Team goals

Girona II 1+ goals
75%
Girona II 2+ goals
40%
Girona II 3+ goals
16%
Peralada 1+ goals
66%
Peralada 2+ goals
29%
Peralada 3+ goals
9%

Draw no bet

Girona II (draw refunded)
60%
Peralada (draw refunded)
40%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals
36%
Both score & under 3
13%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Girona II at home — creates 1.72, concedes 1.13 · 78 matches

Peralada away — creates 1.01, concedes 1.04 · 110 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Girona II attack 1.72 + Peralada defence 1.04 → ÷2 → 1.38

Peralada attack 1.01 + Girona II defence 1.13 → ÷2 → 1.07

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 44%?"

Girona II scores more
44%
level
27%
Peralada scores more
29%

Girona II at 44% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

  • injuries & suspensions
  • the matchday lineup
  • motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
  • weather & pitch condition
  • in-game coaching decisions

So 44% does not mean "Girona II will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Probable lineups not yet announced

Starting lineups are usually confirmed ~1 hour before kickoff

Match Recap: Girona II vs Peralada

Girona II and Peralada drew 1-1 in Tercera División RFEF - Group 5 on March 3, 2024.

The match was played at Campo Municipal Riudarenes in Riudarenes.