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Girona II vs L'Escala — Tercera División RFEF - Group 5 2019

Girona II
Girona II
FT
1 – 1
HT: 1 – 0
L'Escala
L'Escala
12/15/2024Tercera División RFEF - Group 5Tercera División RFEF - Group 5 · Group 5 - 15Campo Municipal Riudarenes

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 51+ matches

Girona II53%
×Draw24%
L'Escala23%
✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 5 more than always backing the home side
Model
50%
Always home
44.6%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 50% correct across 579,794 matches, vs 44.6% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.2% correct · Away picks 49.2% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

Girona II
1.71
L'Escala
1.04

Girona II creates 64% more chances

Season form · 78 home / 51 away

creates per match

Girona II
1.72
L'Escala
0.96

allows per match

Girona II
1.13
L'Escala
1.69

finishing

Girona II+0.00on par
L'Escala+0.00on par

Total goals

52%Over
  • Over52
  • Under48

Close call

Both teams score

53%Yes
  • Yes53
  • No47

Both teams likely to score

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Girona II ↓

L'Escala →
0
1
2
3
4
0
0–06%
0–17%
0–23%
0–31%
0–40%
1
1–011%
1–111%
1–26%
1–32%
1–41%
2
2–09%
2–110%
2–25%
2–32%
2–40%
3
3–05%
3–16%
3–23%
3–31%
3–40%
4
4–02%
4–12%
4–21%
4–30%
4–40%

Most likely 1–0 (11%) · grid covers 97% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5
94%6%1.5
76%24%2.5
52%48%3.5
30%70%4.5
14%86%

Double chance

Girona II or draw
77%
Girona II or L'Escala
76%
Draw or L'Escala
47%

Winning margin

Girona II wins by 2+
29%
L'Escala wins by 2+
8%

Team goals

Girona II 1+ goals
82%
Girona II 2+ goals
51%
Girona II 3+ goals
24%
L'Escala 1+ goals
65%
L'Escala 2+ goals
28%
L'Escala 3+ goals
9%

Draw no bet

Girona II (draw refunded)
70%
L'Escala (draw refunded)
30%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals
42%
Both score & under 3
11%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Girona II at home — creates 1.72, concedes 1.13 · 78 matches

L'Escala away — creates 0.96, concedes 1.69 · 51 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Girona II attack 1.72 + L'Escala defence 1.69 → ÷2 → 1.71

L'Escala attack 0.96 + Girona II defence 1.13 → ÷2 → 1.04

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 53%?"

Girona II scores more
53%
level
24%
L'Escala scores more
23%

Girona II at 53% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

  • injuries & suspensions
  • the matchday lineup
  • motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
  • weather & pitch condition
  • in-game coaching decisions

So 53% does not mean "Girona II will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Probable lineups not yet announced

Starting lineups are usually confirmed ~1 hour before kickoff

Match Recap: Girona II vs L'Escala

Girona II and L'Escala drew 1-1 in Tercera División RFEF - Group 5 on December 15, 2024.

The match was played at Campo Municipal Riudarenes in Riudarenes.