Girona II 0–1 Figueres: Result & Stats

Girona II

0 – 1

HT: 0 – 0

Figueres

10/24/2021

Tercera División RFEF - Group 5 · Group 5 - 8Campo Municipal Riudarenes

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 45+ matches

Girona II45%

×Draw25%

Figueres30%

✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 6 more than always backing the home side

Model

49.7%

Always home

44.3%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 49.7% correct across 106,786 matches, vs 44.3% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.7% correct · Away picks 47.3% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Girona IIExpected goals in this matchFigueres

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

1.56

1.22

Girona II

1.56

Figueres

1.22

Girona II creates 28% more chances

Season form · 78 home / 45 away

1.72

creates per match

1.31

1.13

allows per match

1.40

creates per match

Girona II

1.72

Figueres

1.31

allows per match

Girona II

1.13

Figueres

1.40

+0.00on par

finishing

+0.00on par

finishing

Girona II+0.00on par

Figueres+0.00on par

Total goals

Over53
Under47

3+ goals likely

Both teams score

Yes56
No44

Both teams likely to score

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Girona II ↓

Figueres →

0–06%

0–18%

0–25%

0–32%

0–41%

1–010%

1–112%

1–27%

1–33%

1–41%

2–08%

2–19%

2–26%

2–32%

2–41%

3–04%

3–15%

3–23%

3–31%

3–40%

4–02%

4–12%

4–21%

4–30%

4–40%

Most likely 1–1 (12%) · grid covers 97% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5

94%6%1.5

77%23%2.5

53%47%3.5

30%70%4.5

15%85%

Double chance

Girona II or draw

70%

Girona II or Figueres

75%

Draw or Figueres

55%

Winning margin

Girona II wins by 2+

23%

Figueres wins by 2+

12%

Team goals

Girona II 1+ goals

79%

Girona II 2+ goals

46%

Girona II 3+ goals

21%

Figueres 1+ goals

70%

Figueres 2+ goals

34%

Figueres 3+ goals

12%

Draw no bet

Girona II (draw refunded)

60%

Figueres (draw refunded)

40%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals

44%

Both score & under 3

12%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

Recent form of each side

Girona II at home — creates 1.72, concedes 1.13 · 78 matches

Figueres away — creates 1.31, concedes 1.40 · 45 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

Expected goals for this match

Girona II attack 1.72 + Figueres defence 1.40 → ÷2 → 1.56

Figueres attack 1.31 + Girona II defence 1.13 → ÷2 → 1.22

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

The answer to "why 45%?"

Girona II scores more

45%

level

25%

Figueres scores more

30%

Girona II at 45% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

injuries & suspensions
the matchday lineup
motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
weather & pitch condition
in-game coaching decisions

So 45% does not mean "Girona II will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Probable lineups not yet announced

Starting lineups are usually confirmed ~1 hour before kickoff