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Girona II vs Banyoles — Tercera División RFEF - Group 5 2019

Girona II
Girona II
FT
2 – 0
HT: 1 – 0
Banyoles
Banyoles
2/14/2021Tercera División RFEF - Group 5Tercera División RFEF - Group 5 · Group 5 - 16Camp de Futbol Torres de Palau

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 30+ matches

Girona II52%
×Draw26%
Banyoles22%
✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 6 more than always backing the home side
Model
49.7%
Always home
44.3%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 49.7% correct across 106,786 matches, vs 44.3% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.7% correct · Away picks 47.3% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

Girona II
1.54
Banyoles
0.91

Girona II creates 69% more chances

Season form · 78 home / 30 away

creates per match

Girona II
1.72
Banyoles
0.70

allows per match

Girona II
1.13
Banyoles
1.37

finishing

Girona II+0.00on par
Banyoles+0.00on par

Total goals

56%Under
  • Under56
  • Over44

Fewer than 3 goals likely

Both teams score

53%No
  • No53
  • Yes47

One side may not score

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Girona II ↓

Banyoles →
0
1
2
3
4
0
0–09%
0–18%
0–24%
0–31%
0–40%
1
1–013%
1–112%
1–26%
1–32%
1–40%
2
2–010%
2–19%
2–24%
2–31%
2–40%
3
3–05%
3–15%
3–22%
3–31%
3–40%
4
4–02%
4–12%
4–21%
4–30%
4–40%

Most likely 1–0 (13%) · grid covers 98% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5
91%9%1.5
70%30%2.5
44%56%3.5
23%77%4.5
10%90%

Double chance

Girona II or draw
78%
Girona II or Banyoles
74%
Draw or Banyoles
48%

Winning margin

Girona II wins by 2+
27%
Banyoles wins by 2+
7%

Team goals

Girona II 1+ goals
79%
Girona II 2+ goals
45%
Girona II 3+ goals
20%
Banyoles 1+ goals
60%
Banyoles 2+ goals
23%
Banyoles 3+ goals
6%

Draw no bet

Girona II (draw refunded)
70%
Banyoles (draw refunded)
30%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals
35%
Both score & under 3
12%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Girona II at home — creates 1.72, concedes 1.13 · 78 matches

Banyoles away — creates 0.70, concedes 1.37 · 30 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Girona II attack 1.72 + Banyoles defence 1.37 → ÷2 → 1.54

Banyoles attack 0.70 + Girona II defence 1.13 → ÷2 → 0.91

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 52%?"

Girona II scores more
52%
level
26%
Banyoles scores more
22%

Girona II at 52% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

  • injuries & suspensions
  • the matchday lineup
  • motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
  • weather & pitch condition
  • in-game coaching decisions

So 52% does not mean "Girona II will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Probable lineups not yet announced

Starting lineups are usually confirmed ~1 hour before kickoff

Tercera División RFEF - Group 5: Girona II 2–0 Banyoles

Girona II beat Banyoles 2-0 in Tercera División RFEF - Group 5 on February 14, 2021.

The match was played at Camp de Futbol Torres de Palau in Girona.