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Girona II vs Badalona II — Tercera División RFEF - Group 5 2019

Girona II
Girona II
FT
1 – 2
HT: 0 – 2
Badalona II
Badalona II
3/31/2024Tercera División RFEF - Group 5Tercera División RFEF - Group 5 · Group 5 - 27Campo Municipal Riudarenes

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 49+ matches

Girona II46%
×Draw26%
Badalona II29%
✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 5 more than always backing the home side
Model
50.3%
Always home
44.5%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 50.3% correct across 582,450 matches, vs 44.5% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.5% correct · Away picks 49.5% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

Girona II
1.50
Badalona II
1.13

Girona II creates 33% more chances

Season form · 78 home / 49 away

creates per match

Girona II
1.72
Badalona II
1.12

allows per match

Girona II
1.13
Badalona II
1.27

finishing

Girona II+0.00on par
Badalona II+0.00on par

Total goals

51%Under
  • Under51
  • Over49

Close call

Both teams score

53%Yes
  • Yes53
  • No47

Both teams likely to score

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Girona II ↓

Badalona II →
0
1
2
3
4
0
0–07%
0–18%
0–25%
0–32%
0–40%
1
1–011%
1–112%
1–27%
1–33%
1–41%
2
2–08%
2–19%
2–25%
2–32%
2–41%
3
3–04%
3–15%
3–23%
3–31%
3–40%
4
4–02%
4–12%
4–21%
4–30%
4–40%

Most likely 1–1 (12%) · grid covers 98% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5
93%7%1.5
74%26%2.5
49%51%3.5
27%73%4.5
13%87%

Double chance

Girona II or draw
71%
Girona II or Badalona II
74%
Draw or Badalona II
54%

Winning margin

Girona II wins by 2+
23%
Badalona II wins by 2+
11%

Team goals

Girona II 1+ goals
78%
Girona II 2+ goals
44%
Girona II 3+ goals
19%
Badalona II 1+ goals
68%
Badalona II 2+ goals
31%
Badalona II 3+ goals
11%

Draw no bet

Girona II (draw refunded)
62%
Badalona II (draw refunded)
38%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals
40%
Both score & under 3
12%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Girona II at home — creates 1.72, concedes 1.13 · 78 matches

Badalona II away — creates 1.12, concedes 1.27 · 49 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Girona II attack 1.72 + Badalona II defence 1.27 → ÷2 → 1.50

Badalona II attack 1.12 + Girona II defence 1.13 → ÷2 → 1.13

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 46%?"

Girona II scores more
46%
level
26%
Badalona II scores more
29%

Girona II at 46% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

  • injuries & suspensions
  • the matchday lineup
  • motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
  • weather & pitch condition
  • in-game coaching decisions

So 46% does not mean "Girona II will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Probable lineups not yet announced

Starting lineups are usually confirmed ~1 hour before kickoff

Match Recap: Girona II vs Badalona II

Badalona II beat Girona II 2-1 in Tercera División RFEF - Group 5 on March 31, 2024.

The match was played at Campo Municipal Riudarenes in Riudarenes.