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Giresunspor vs Kardemir Karabukspor — 1. Lig 2018

Giresunspor
Giresunspor
FT
4 – 0
HT: 1 – 0
Kardemir Karabukspor
Kardemir Karabukspor
11/10/20181. Lig1. Lig · Round 12Giresun Atatürk Stadyumu

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 17+ matches

Giresunspor77%
×Draw15%
Kardemir Karabukspor8%
✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 6 more than always backing the home side
Model
49.7%
Always home
44.3%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 49.7% correct across 106,786 matches, vs 44.3% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.7% correct · Away picks 47.3% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

Giresunspor
2.56
Kardemir Karabukspor
0.69

Giresunspor creates 271% more chances

Season form · 68 home / 17 away

creates per match

Giresunspor
1.06
Kardemir Karabukspor
0.18

allows per match

Giresunspor
1.21
Kardemir Karabukspor
4.06

finishing

Giresunspor+0.00on par
Kardemir Karabukspor+0.00on par

Total goals

62%Over
  • Over62
  • Under38

3+ goals likely

Both teams score

54%No
  • No54
  • Yes46

One side may not score

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Giresunspor ↓

Kardemir Karabukspor →
0
1
2
3
4
0
0–04%
0–13%
0–21%
0–30%
0–40%
1
1–010%
1–17%
1–22%
1–31%
1–40%
2
2–013%
2–19%
2–23%
2–31%
2–40%
3
3–011%
3–18%
3–23%
3–31%
3–40%
4
4–07%
4–15%
4–22%
4–30%
4–40%

Most likely 2–0 (13%) · grid covers 90% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5
96%4%1.5
83%17%2.5
62%38%3.5
40%60%4.5
22%78%

Double chance

Giresunspor or draw
92%
Giresunspor or Kardemir Karabukspor
85%
Draw or Kardemir Karabukspor
23%

Winning margin

Giresunspor wins by 2+
55%
Kardemir Karabukspor wins by 2+
2%

Team goals

Giresunspor 1+ goals
92%
Giresunspor 2+ goals
72%
Giresunspor 3+ goals
46%
Kardemir Karabukspor 1+ goals
50%
Kardemir Karabukspor 2+ goals
15%
Kardemir Karabukspor 3+ goals
3%

Draw no bet

Giresunspor (draw refunded)
91%
Kardemir Karabukspor (draw refunded)
9%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals
39%
Both score & under 3
7%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Giresunspor at home — creates 1.06, concedes 1.21 · 68 matches

Kardemir Karabukspor away — creates 0.18, concedes 4.06 · 17 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Giresunspor attack 1.06 + Kardemir Karabukspor defence 4.06 → ÷2 → 2.56

Kardemir Karabukspor attack 0.18 + Giresunspor defence 1.21 → ÷2 → 0.69

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 77%?"

Giresunspor scores more
77%
level
15%
Kardemir Karabukspor scores more
8%

Giresunspor at 77% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

  • injuries & suspensions
  • the matchday lineup
  • motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
  • weather & pitch condition
  • in-game coaching decisions

So 77% does not mean "Giresunspor will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Probable lineups not yet announced

Starting lineups are usually confirmed ~1 hour before kickoff

1. Lig: Giresunspor 4–0 Kardemir Karabukspor

Giresunspor beat Kardemir Karabukspor 4-0 in 1. Lig on November 10, 2018.

The match was played at Giresun Atatürk Stadyumu in Giresun.