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Giresunspor vs Gaziantep FK — 1. Lig 2018

Giresunspor
Giresunspor
FT
1 – 5
HT: 0 – 1
Gaziantep FK
Gaziantep FK
12/2/20181. Lig1. Lig · Round 14Giresun Atatürk Stadyumu

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 17+ matches

Giresunspor24%
×Draw25%
Gaziantep FK51%
✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 6 more than always backing the home side
Model
49.7%
Always home
44.3%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 49.7% correct across 106,786 matches, vs 44.3% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.7% correct · Away picks 47.3% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

Giresunspor
1.00
Gaziantep FK
1.60

Gaziantep FK creates 60% more chances

Season form · 68 home / 17 away

creates per match

Giresunspor
1.06
Gaziantep FK
2.00

allows per match

Giresunspor
1.21
Gaziantep FK
0.94

finishing

Giresunspor+0.00on par
Gaziantep FK+0.00on par

Total goals

52%Under
  • Under52
  • Over48

Close call

Both teams score

50%No
  • No50
  • Yes50

Close call

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Giresunspor ↓

Gaziantep FK →
0
1
2
3
4
0
0–07%
0–112%
0–210%
0–35%
0–42%
1
1–07%
1–112%
1–210%
1–35%
1–42%
2
2–04%
2–16%
2–25%
2–33%
2–41%
3
3–01%
3–12%
3–22%
3–31%
3–40%
4
4–00%
4–10%
4–20%
4–30%
4–40%

Most likely 0–1 (12%) · grid covers 97% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5
93%7%1.5
73%27%2.5
48%52%3.5
26%74%4.5
12%88%

Double chance

Giresunspor or draw
49%
Giresunspor or Gaziantep FK
75%
Draw or Gaziantep FK
76%

Winning margin

Giresunspor wins by 2+
8%
Gaziantep FK wins by 2+
27%

Team goals

Giresunspor 1+ goals
63%
Giresunspor 2+ goals
26%
Giresunspor 3+ goals
8%
Gaziantep FK 1+ goals
80%
Gaziantep FK 2+ goals
47%
Gaziantep FK 3+ goals
22%

Draw no bet

Giresunspor (draw refunded)
32%
Gaziantep FK (draw refunded)
68%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals
39%
Both score & under 3
12%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Giresunspor at home — creates 1.06, concedes 1.21 · 68 matches

Gaziantep FK away — creates 2.00, concedes 0.94 · 17 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Giresunspor attack 1.06 + Gaziantep FK defence 0.94 → ÷2 → 1.00

Gaziantep FK attack 2.00 + Giresunspor defence 1.21 → ÷2 → 1.60

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 51%?"

Giresunspor scores more
24%
level
25%
Gaziantep FK scores more
51%

Gaziantep FK at 51% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

  • injuries & suspensions
  • the matchday lineup
  • motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
  • weather & pitch condition
  • in-game coaching decisions

So 51% does not mean "Gaziantep FK will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Probable lineups not yet announced

Starting lineups are usually confirmed ~1 hour before kickoff

1. Lig: Giresunspor 1–5 Gaziantep FK

Gaziantep FK beat Giresunspor 5-1 in 1. Lig on December 2, 2018.

The match was played at Giresun Atatürk Stadyumu in Giresun.