Giresunspor 0–1 Bodrum FK: Result & Stats | 1. Lig

Giresunspor

FT

0 – 1

HT: 0 – 0

Bodrum FK

G. Bayrakdar 90+4'

8/12/2023

1. Lig · Round 1Çotanak Stadyumu

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 57+ matches

Giresunspor31%

×Draw28%

Bodrum FK41%

✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 5 more than always backing the home side

Model

50%

Always home

44.6%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 50% correct across 579,794 matches, vs 44.6% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.2% correct · Away picks 49.2% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

GiresunsporExpected goals in this matchBodrum FK

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

1.06

1.25

Giresunspor

1.06

Bodrum FK

1.25

Bodrum FK creates 18% more chances

Season form · 68 home / 57 away

1.06

creates per match

1.28

1.21

allows per match

1.07

creates per match

Giresunspor

1.06

Bodrum FK

1.28

allows per match

Giresunspor

1.21

Bodrum FK

1.07

+0.00on par

finishing

+0.00on par

finishing

Giresunspor+0.00on par

Bodrum FK+0.00on par

Total goals

Under59
Over41

Fewer than 3 goals likely

Both teams score

No53
Yes47

One side may not score

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Giresunspor ↓

Bodrum FK →

0

1

2

3

4

0

0–010%

0–112%

0–28%

0–33%

0–41%

1

1–011%

1–113%

1–28%

1–33%

1–41%

2

2–06%

2–17%

2–24%

2–32%

2–41%

3

3–02%

3–12%

3–22%

3–31%

3–40%

4

4–01%

4–11%

4–20%

4–30%

4–40%

Most likely 1–1 (13%) · grid covers 99% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5

90%10%1.5

67%33%2.5

41%59%3.5

20%80%4.5

8%92%

Double chance

Giresunspor or draw

59%

Giresunspor or Bodrum FK

72%

Draw or Bodrum FK

69%

Winning margin

Giresunspor wins by 2+

12%

Bodrum FK wins by 2+

18%

Team goals

Giresunspor 1+ goals

65%

Giresunspor 2+ goals

29%

Giresunspor 3+ goals

9%

Bodrum FK 1+ goals

71%

Bodrum FK 2+ goals

36%

Bodrum FK 3+ goals

13%

Draw no bet

Giresunspor (draw refunded)

44%

Bodrum FK (draw refunded)

56%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals

33%

Both score & under 3

13%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Giresunspor at home — creates 1.06, concedes 1.21 · 68 matches

Bodrum FK away — creates 1.28, concedes 1.07 · 57 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Giresunspor attack 1.06 + Bodrum FK defence 1.07 → ÷2 → 1.06

Bodrum FK attack 1.28 + Giresunspor defence 1.21 → ÷2 → 1.25

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 41%?"

Giresunspor scores more

31%

level

28%

Bodrum FK scores more

41%

Bodrum FK at 41% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

injuries & suspensions
the matchday lineup
motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
weather & pitch condition
in-game coaching decisions

So 41% does not mean "Bodrum FK will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Match Events

16'

K. Seven

46'

E. Ceylan← Ç. Orhan

57'

Aldair← C. Dumanlı

57'

M. Gönülaçar← E. Değişmez

67'

E. Ceylan

69'

K. Seven

69'

K. Seven

81'

P. BrazaoGoal Disallowed - offside

81'

V. Savićević← E. Şenlikoğlu

81'

90'

90+3'

90+7'

90+8'

F. Kutuk

90+9'

90+7'

90'

90+4'

Giresunspor

Bodrum

1

Sousa

3

Čelůstka

34

Aytemur

23

▼

Ergün

8

Yalçın

4

▼

Değişmez

20

Brazão

48

▼

Dumanlı

94

▼

Çoban

77

Şen

41

⚽

Bayrakdar

1

Anapa

23

▼

Şenlikoğl

99

Genç

17

▼

37

7

94

10

▼

28

97

9

Manager: M. Kaplan

46'▲E. Ceylan←▼Ç. Orhan

81'▲V. Savićević←▼E. Şenlikoğlu

90+9'▲M. Çakıroğlu←▼Ş. Dik

90+7'▲A. Kara←▼E. Ceylan

Giresunspor substitutes

81Ceylan26Savićević21Çakıroğlu88Kara50Gün66Köşker77Keskin24Cörüt70Nizam4Yılmaz

Manager: İ. Taşdemir

57'▲Aldair←▼C. Dumanlı

57'▲M. Gönülaçar←▼E. Değişmez

81'▲A. Türk←▼B. Çoban

90'▲O. Imeri←▼Ü. Ergün

Bodrum FK substitutes

17Aldair72Gönülaçar29Türk11Imeri80Güven7Kurtuluş32Tosun90Sevinç16Albayrak

Match Recap: Giresunspor vs Bodrum FK

Bodrum FK beat Giresunspor 1-0 in 1. Lig on August 12, 2023.

Goals: G. Bayrakdar (90+4').

The match was played at Çotanak Stadyumu in Giresun.

Giresunspor vs Bodrum FK — 1. Lig 2018

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Total goals

Both teams score

Match Events

Head to Head

Match Recap: Giresunspor vs Bodrum FK