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Giresunspor vs Bandırmaspor — 1. Lig 2018

Giresunspor
Giresunspor
FT
0 – 1
HT: 0 – 1
Bandırmaspor
Bandırmaspor
8/28/20231. Lig1. Lig · Round 3Çotanak Stadyumu

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 68+ matches

Giresunspor35%
×Draw27%
Bandırmaspor37%
✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 5 more than always backing the home side
Model
50%
Always home
44.6%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 50% correct across 579,794 matches, vs 44.6% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.2% correct · Away picks 49.2% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

Giresunspor
1.19
Bandırmaspor
1.24

Both teams create about equally

Season form · 68 home / 110 away

creates per match

Giresunspor
1.06
Bandırmaspor
1.27

allows per match

Giresunspor
1.21
Bandırmaspor
1.31

finishing

Giresunspor+0.00on par
Bandırmaspor+0.00on par

Total goals

56%Under
  • Under56
  • Over44

Fewer than 3 goals likely

Both teams score

51%No
  • No51
  • Yes49

Close call

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Giresunspor ↓

Bandırmaspor →
0
1
2
3
4
0
0–09%
0–111%
0–27%
0–33%
0–41%
1
1–010%
1–113%
1–28%
1–33%
1–41%
2
2–06%
2–18%
2–25%
2–32%
2–41%
3
3–02%
3–13%
3–22%
3–31%
3–40%
4
4–01%
4–11%
4–21%
4–30%
4–40%

Most likely 1–1 (13%) · grid covers 98% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5
91%9%1.5
70%30%2.5
44%56%3.5
23%77%4.5
10%90%

Double chance

Giresunspor or draw
63%
Giresunspor or Bandırmaspor
73%
Draw or Bandırmaspor
65%

Winning margin

Giresunspor wins by 2+
15%
Bandırmaspor wins by 2+
16%

Team goals

Giresunspor 1+ goals
70%
Giresunspor 2+ goals
33%
Giresunspor 3+ goals
12%
Bandırmaspor 1+ goals
71%
Bandırmaspor 2+ goals
35%
Bandırmaspor 3+ goals
13%

Draw no bet

Giresunspor (draw refunded)
48%
Bandırmaspor (draw refunded)
52%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals
36%
Both score & under 3
13%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Giresunspor at home — creates 1.06, concedes 1.21 · 68 matches

Bandırmaspor away — creates 1.27, concedes 1.31 · 110 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Giresunspor attack 1.06 + Bandırmaspor defence 1.31 → ÷2 → 1.19

Bandırmaspor attack 1.27 + Giresunspor defence 1.21 → ÷2 → 1.24

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 37%?"

Giresunspor scores more
35%
level
27%
Bandırmaspor scores more
37%

Bandırmaspor at 37% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

  • injuries & suspensions
  • the matchday lineup
  • motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
  • weather & pitch condition
  • in-game coaching decisions

So 37% does not mean "Bandırmaspor will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Probable lineups not yet announced

Starting lineups are usually confirmed ~1 hour before kickoff

Match Recap: Giresunspor vs Bandırmaspor

Bandırmaspor beat Giresunspor 1-0 in 1. Lig on August 28, 2023.

The match was played at Çotanak Stadyumu in Giresun.