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Giresunspor vs Ankaraspor — Türkiye Kupası 2018

Giresunspor
Giresunspor
FT
3 – 2
HT: 0 – 1
Ankaraspor
Ankaraspor
11/9/2022Türkiye KupasıTürkiye Kupası · 4th RoundÇotanak Stadyumu

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 6+ matches

Giresunspor36%
×Draw21%
Ankaraspor43%
✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 6 more than always backing the home side
Model
49.7%
Always home
44.3%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 49.7% correct across 106,786 matches, vs 44.3% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.7% correct · Away picks 47.3% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

Giresunspor
1.85
Ankaraspor
2.04

Ankaraspor creates 10% more chances

Season form · 8 home / 6 away

creates per match

Giresunspor
1.88
Ankaraspor
1.83

allows per match

Giresunspor
2.25
Ankaraspor
1.83

finishing

Giresunspor+0.00on par
Ankaraspor+0.00on par

Total goals

74%Over
  • Over74
  • Under26

3+ goals likely

Both teams score

73%Yes
  • Yes73
  • No27

Both teams likely to score

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Giresunspor ↓

Ankaraspor →
0
1
2
3
4
0
0–02%
0–14%
0–24%
0–33%
0–41%
1
1–04%
1–18%
1–28%
1–35%
1–43%
2
2–04%
2–17%
2–27%
2–35%
2–43%
3
3–02%
3–14%
3–25%
3–33%
3–42%
4
4–01%
4–12%
4–22%
4–31%
4–41%

Most likely 1–1 (8%) · grid covers 91% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5
98%2%1.5
90%10%2.5
74%26%3.5
54%46%4.5
34%66%

Double chance

Giresunspor or draw
57%
Giresunspor or Ankaraspor
79%
Draw or Ankaraspor
64%

Winning margin

Giresunspor wins by 2+
19%
Ankaraspor wins by 2+
24%

Team goals

Giresunspor 1+ goals
84%
Giresunspor 2+ goals
55%
Giresunspor 3+ goals
28%
Ankaraspor 1+ goals
87%
Ankaraspor 2+ goals
60%
Ankaraspor 3+ goals
33%

Draw no bet

Giresunspor (draw refunded)
45%
Ankaraspor (draw refunded)
55%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals
65%
Both score & under 3
8%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Giresunspor at home — creates 1.88, concedes 2.25 · 8 matches

Ankaraspor away — creates 1.83, concedes 1.83 · 6 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Giresunspor attack 1.88 + Ankaraspor defence 1.83 → ÷2 → 1.85

Ankaraspor attack 1.83 + Giresunspor defence 2.25 → ÷2 → 2.04

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 43%?"

Giresunspor scores more
36%
level
21%
Ankaraspor scores more
43%

Ankaraspor at 43% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

  • injuries & suspensions
  • the matchday lineup
  • motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
  • weather & pitch condition
  • in-game coaching decisions

So 43% does not mean "Ankaraspor will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Probable lineups not yet announced

Starting lineups are usually confirmed ~1 hour before kickoff

Türkiye Kupası: Giresunspor 3–2 Ankaraspor

Giresunspor beat Ankaraspor 3-2 in Türkiye Kupası on November 9, 2022.

The match was played at Çotanak Stadyumu in Giresun.