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Giresunspor vs Ankara Demirspor — Türkiye Kupası 2018

Giresunspor
Giresunspor
FT
4 – 2
HT: 2 – 0
Ankara Demirspor
Ankara Demirspor
12/2/2021Türkiye KupasıTürkiye Kupası · 4th RoundÇotanak Stadyumu

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 3+ matches

Giresunspor52%
×Draw20%
Ankara Demirspor28%
✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 6 more than always backing the home side
Model
49.7%
Always home
44.3%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 49.7% correct across 106,786 matches, vs 44.3% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.7% correct · Away picks 47.3% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

Giresunspor
2.27
Ankara Demirspor
1.63

Giresunspor creates 39% more chances

Season form · 8 home / 3 away

creates per match

Giresunspor
1.88
Ankara Demirspor
1.00

allows per match

Giresunspor
2.25
Ankara Demirspor
2.67

finishing

Giresunspor+0.00on par
Ankara Demirspor+0.00on par

Total goals

74%Over
  • Over74
  • Under26

3+ goals likely

Both teams score

72%Yes
  • Yes72
  • No28

Both teams likely to score

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Giresunspor ↓

Ankara Demirspor →
0
1
2
3
4
0
0–02%
0–13%
0–23%
0–31%
0–41%
1
1–05%
1–18%
1–26%
1–33%
1–41%
2
2–05%
2–19%
2–27%
2–34%
2–42%
3
3–04%
3–16%
3–25%
3–33%
3–41%
4
4–02%
4–14%
4–23%
4–32%
4–41%

Most likely 2–1 (9%) · grid covers 91% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5
98%2%1.5
90%10%2.5
74%26%3.5
54%46%4.5
34%66%

Double chance

Giresunspor or draw
72%
Giresunspor or Ankara Demirspor
80%
Draw or Ankara Demirspor
48%

Winning margin

Giresunspor wins by 2+
31%
Ankara Demirspor wins by 2+
13%

Team goals

Giresunspor 1+ goals
90%
Giresunspor 2+ goals
66%
Giresunspor 3+ goals
39%
Ankara Demirspor 1+ goals
80%
Ankara Demirspor 2+ goals
48%
Ankara Demirspor 3+ goals
22%

Draw no bet

Giresunspor (draw refunded)
65%
Ankara Demirspor (draw refunded)
35%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals
64%
Both score & under 3
8%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Giresunspor at home — creates 1.88, concedes 2.25 · 8 matches

Ankara Demirspor away — creates 1.00, concedes 2.67 · 3 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Giresunspor attack 1.88 + Ankara Demirspor defence 2.67 → ÷2 → 2.27

Ankara Demirspor attack 1.00 + Giresunspor defence 2.25 → ÷2 → 1.63

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 52%?"

Giresunspor scores more
52%
level
20%
Ankara Demirspor scores more
28%

Giresunspor at 52% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

  • injuries & suspensions
  • the matchday lineup
  • motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
  • weather & pitch condition
  • in-game coaching decisions

So 52% does not mean "Giresunspor will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Probable lineups not yet announced

Starting lineups are usually confirmed ~1 hour before kickoff

Türkiye Kupası: Giresunspor 4–2 Ankara Demirspor

Giresunspor beat Ankara Demirspor 4-2 in Türkiye Kupası on December 2, 2021.

The match was played at Çotanak Stadyumu in Giresun.