Giresunspor 1–0 Akhisarspor: Result & Stats

Giresunspor

FT

1 – 0

HT: 1 – 0

Akhisarspor

10/5/2019

1. Lig · Round 7Giresun Atatürk Stadyumu

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 35+ matches

Giresunspor43%

×Draw26%

Akhisarspor31%

✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 6 more than always backing the home side

Model

49.7%

Always home

44.3%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 49.7% correct across 106,786 matches, vs 44.3% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.7% correct · Away picks 47.3% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

GiresunsporExpected goals in this matchAkhisarspor

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

1.45

1.17

Giresunspor

1.45

Akhisarspor

1.17

Giresunspor creates 24% more chances

Season form · 68 home / 35 away

1.06

creates per match

1.14

1.21

allows per match

1.83

creates per match

Giresunspor

1.06

Akhisarspor

1.14

allows per match

Giresunspor

1.21

Akhisarspor

1.83

+0.00on par

finishing

+0.00on par

finishing

Giresunspor+0.00on par

Akhisarspor+0.00on par

Total goals

Under51
Over49

Close call

Both teams score

Yes53
No47

Both teams likely to score

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Giresunspor ↓

Akhisarspor →

0

1

2

3

4

0

0–07%

0–19%

0–25%

0–32%

0–41%

1

1–011%

1–112%

1–27%

1–33%

1–41%

2

2–08%

2–19%

2–25%

2–32%

2–41%

3

3–04%

3–14%

3–23%

3–31%

3–40%

4

4–01%

4–12%

4–21%

4–30%

4–40%

Most likely 1–1 (12%) · grid covers 98% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5

93%7%1.5

74%26%2.5

49%51%3.5

27%73%4.5

12%88%

Double chance

Giresunspor or draw

69%

Giresunspor or Akhisarspor

74%

Draw or Akhisarspor

57%

Winning margin

Giresunspor wins by 2+

21%

Akhisarspor wins by 2+

12%

Team goals

Giresunspor 1+ goals

77%

Giresunspor 2+ goals

42%

Giresunspor 3+ goals

18%

Akhisarspor 1+ goals

69%

Akhisarspor 2+ goals

33%

Akhisarspor 3+ goals

11%

Draw no bet

Giresunspor (draw refunded)

59%

Akhisarspor (draw refunded)

41%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals

40%

Both score & under 3

12%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Giresunspor at home — creates 1.06, concedes 1.21 · 68 matches

Akhisarspor away — creates 1.14, concedes 1.83 · 35 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Giresunspor attack 1.06 + Akhisarspor defence 1.83 → ÷2 → 1.45

Akhisarspor attack 1.14 + Giresunspor defence 1.21 → ÷2 → 1.17

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 43%?"

Giresunspor scores more

43%

level

26%

Akhisarspor scores more

31%

Giresunspor at 43% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

injuries & suspensions
the matchday lineup
motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
weather & pitch condition
in-game coaching decisions

So 43% does not mean "Giresunspor will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Probable lineups not yet announced

Starting lineups are usually confirmed ~1 hour before kickoff