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Ægir vs Reynir — 2. Deild 2026

Ægir
Ægir
FT
1 – 1
HT: 0 – 0
Reynir
Reynir
C. Rolin 68'
M. Magnusson 90+1'
7/27/20222. Deild2. Deild · Round 14Þorlákshafnarvöllur

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 3+ matches

Ægir52%
×Draw20%
Reynir29%
✓ Correct in 49 of 100 matches — 5 more than always backing the home side
Model
48.6%
Always home
43.8%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 48.6% correct across 15,072 matches, vs 43.8% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.1% correct · Away picks 45.3% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

Ægir
2.43
Reynir
1.80

Ægir creates 35% more chances

Season form · 15 home / 3 away

creates per match

Ægir
2.53
Reynir
2.33

allows per match

Ægir
1.27
Reynir
2.33

finishing

Ægir+0.00on par
Reynir+0.00on par

Total goals

79%Over
  • Over79
  • Under21

3+ goals likely

Both teams score

76%Yes
  • Yes76
  • No24

Both teams likely to score

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Ægir ↓

Reynir →
0
1
2
3
4
0
0–01%
0–13%
0–22%
0–31%
0–41%
1
1–04%
1–16%
1–26%
1–33%
1–42%
2
2–04%
2–18%
2–27%
2–34%
2–42%
3
3–04%
3–16%
3–26%
3–33%
3–42%
4
4–02%
4–14%
4–23%
4–32%
4–41%

Most likely 2–1 (8%) · grid covers 88% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5
99%1%1.5
92%8%2.5
79%21%3.5
60%40%4.5
41%59%

Double chance

Ægir or draw
71%
Ægir or Reynir
80%
Draw or Reynir
48%

Winning margin

Ægir wins by 2+
32%
Reynir wins by 2+
14%

Team goals

Ægir 1+ goals
91%
Ægir 2+ goals
69%
Ægir 3+ goals
43%
Reynir 1+ goals
83%
Reynir 2+ goals
54%
Reynir 3+ goals
27%

Draw no bet

Ægir (draw refunded)
64%
Reynir (draw refunded)
36%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals
70%
Both score & under 3
6%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Ægir at home — creates 2.53, concedes 1.27 · 15 matches

Reynir away — creates 2.33, concedes 2.33 · 3 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Ægir attack 2.53 + Reynir defence 2.33 → ÷2 → 2.43

Reynir attack 2.33 + Ægir defence 1.27 → ÷2 → 1.80

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 52%?"

Ægir scores more
52%
level
20%
Reynir scores more
29%

Ægir at 52% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

  • injuries & suspensions
  • the matchday lineup
  • motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
  • weather & pitch condition
  • in-game coaching decisions

So 52% does not mean "Ægir will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Match Events

68'
C. Rolin
90+1'
M. Magnusson

Probable lineups not yet announced

Starting lineups are usually confirmed ~1 hour before kickoff

Match Recap: Ægir vs Reynir

Ægir and Reynir drew 1-1 in 2. Deild on July 27, 2022.

Goals: C. Rolin (68'), M. Magnusson (90+1').

The match was played at Þorlákshafnarvöllur in Þorlákshöfn.