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Ægir vs KFS — Cup 2019

Ægir
Ægir
FT
1 – 0
HT: 0 – 0
KFS
KFS
S. Dabetic 48'
4/21/2022CupCup · 2nd RoundÞorlákshafnarvöllur

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 8+ matches

Ægir65%
×Draw17%
KFS18%
✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 6 more than always backing the home side
Model
49.7%
Always home
44.3%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 49.7% correct across 106,786 matches, vs 44.3% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.7% correct · Away picks 47.3% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

Ægir
2.80
KFS
1.42

Ægir creates 97% more chances

Season form · 8 home / 9 away

creates per match

Ægir
1.38
KFS
1.22

allows per match

Ægir
1.63
KFS
4.22

finishing

Ægir+0.00on par
KFS+0.00on par

Total goals

79%Over
  • Over79
  • Under21

3+ goals likely

Both teams score

71%Yes
  • Yes71
  • No29

Both teams likely to score

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Ægir ↓

KFS →
0
1
2
3
4
0
0–02%
0–12%
0–22%
0–31%
0–40%
1
1–04%
1–16%
1–24%
1–32%
1–41%
2
2–06%
2–18%
2–26%
2–33%
2–41%
3
3–06%
3–18%
3–26%
3–33%
3–41%
4
4–04%
4–15%
4–24%
4–32%
4–41%

Most likely 2–1 (8%) · grid covers 86% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5
98%2%1.5
92%8%2.5
79%21%3.5
60%40%4.5
40%60%

Double chance

Ægir or draw
82%
Ægir or KFS
83%
Draw or KFS
35%

Winning margin

Ægir wins by 2+
45%
KFS wins by 2+
7%

Team goals

Ægir 1+ goals
94%
Ægir 2+ goals
76%
Ægir 3+ goals
52%
KFS 1+ goals
76%
KFS 2+ goals
41%
KFS 3+ goals
17%

Draw no bet

Ægir (draw refunded)
79%
KFS (draw refunded)
21%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals
65%
Both score & under 3
6%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Ægir at home — creates 1.38, concedes 1.63 · 8 matches

KFS away — creates 1.22, concedes 4.22 · 9 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Ægir attack 1.38 + KFS defence 4.22 → ÷2 → 2.80

KFS attack 1.22 + Ægir defence 1.63 → ÷2 → 1.42

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 65%?"

Ægir scores more
65%
level
17%
KFS scores more
18%

Ægir at 65% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

  • injuries & suspensions
  • the matchday lineup
  • motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
  • weather & pitch condition
  • in-game coaching decisions

So 65% does not mean "Ægir will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Match Events

48'
S. Dabetic

Probable lineups not yet announced

Starting lineups are usually confirmed ~1 hour before kickoff

Match Recap: Ægir vs KFS

Ægir beat KFS 1-0 in Cup on April 21, 2022.

Goals: S. Dabetic (48').

The match was played at Þorlákshafnarvöllur in Þorlákshöfn.