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Ægir vs KFG — 2. Deild 2026

Ægir
Ægir
FT
6 – 3
HT: 3 – 1
KFG
KFG
S. Dabetic 82'
B. Joninuson 78'
D. Cokic 61', 12'
B. N. Kamal 26'
A. Gudbjartsson 21'
J. Barddal 86', 3'
S. Dabetic 59' (OG)
7/20/20252. Deild2. Deild · Round 13GeoSalmo völlurinn

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 35+ matches

Ægir58%
×Draw20%
KFG22%
✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 5 more than always backing the home side
Model
50.2%
Always home
44.5%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 50.2% correct across 585,598 matches, vs 44.5% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.5% correct · Away picks 49.3% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

Ægir
2.21
KFG
1.31

Ægir creates 69% more chances

Season form · 35 home / 50 away

creates per match

Ægir
1.97
KFG
1.24

allows per match

Ægir
1.37
KFG
2.46

finishing

Ægir+0.00on par
KFG+0.00on par

Total goals

68%Over
  • Over68
  • Under32

3+ goals likely

Both teams score

65%Yes
  • Yes65
  • No35

Both teams likely to score

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Ægir ↓

KFG →
0
1
2
3
4
0
0–03%
0–14%
0–23%
0–31%
0–40%
1
1–07%
1–19%
1–26%
1–32%
1–41%
2
2–07%
2–110%
2–26%
2–33%
2–41%
3
3–05%
3–17%
3–25%
3–32%
3–41%
4
4–03%
4–14%
4–23%
4–31%
4–40%

Most likely 2–1 (10%) · grid covers 92% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5
97%3%1.5
87%13%2.5
68%32%3.5
46%54%4.5
27%73%

Double chance

Ægir or draw
78%
Ægir or KFG
80%
Draw or KFG
42%

Winning margin

Ægir wins by 2+
35%
KFG wins by 2+
9%

Team goals

Ægir 1+ goals
89%
Ægir 2+ goals
65%
Ægir 3+ goals
38%
KFG 1+ goals
73%
KFG 2+ goals
38%
KFG 3+ goals
14%

Draw no bet

Ægir (draw refunded)
72%
KFG (draw refunded)
28%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals
56%
Both score & under 3
9%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Ægir at home — creates 1.97, concedes 1.37 · 35 matches

KFG away — creates 1.24, concedes 2.46 · 50 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Ægir attack 1.97 + KFG defence 2.46 → ÷2 → 2.21

KFG attack 1.24 + Ægir defence 1.37 → ÷2 → 1.31

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 58%?"

Ægir scores more
58%
level
20%
KFG scores more
22%

Ægir at 58% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

  • injuries & suspensions
  • the matchday lineup
  • motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
  • weather & pitch condition
  • in-game coaching decisions

So 58% does not mean "Ægir will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Match Events

3'
J. Barddal
12'
D. Cokic
21'
A. Gudbjartsson
26'
B. N. Kamal
59'
S. DabeticOwn goal
61'
D. Cokic
78'
B. Joninuson
82'
S. Dabetic
86'
J. Barddal

Probable lineups not yet announced

Starting lineups are usually confirmed ~1 hour before kickoff

Ægir 6 – 3 KFG

Ægir beat KFG 6-3 in 2. Deild on July 20, 2025.

Goals: J. Barddal (3', 86'), D. Cokic (12', 61'), A. Gudbjartsson (21'), B. N. Kamal (26'), S. Dabetic (59' o.g., 82'), B. Joninuson (78').

The match was played at GeoSalmo völlurinn in Þorlákshöfn.