Ægir 1–0 Fylkir: Result & Stats | Cup

Ægir

FT

1 – 0

HT: 0 – 0

Fylkir

Á. Magnússon 90+3'

6/26/2022

Cup · Round of 16Þorlákshafnarvöllur

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 3+ matches

Ægir27%

×Draw24%

Fylkir49%

✓ Correct in 49 of 100 matches — 5 more than always backing the home side

Model

48.6%

Always home

43.8%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 48.6% correct across 15,072 matches, vs 43.8% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.1% correct · Away picks 45.3% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

ÆgirExpected goals in this matchFylkir

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

1.17

1.67

Ægir

1.17

Fylkir

1.67

Fylkir creates 43% more chances

Season form · 3 home / 3 away

1.00

creates per match

2.33

1.00

allows per match

1.33

creates per match

Ægir

1.00

Fylkir

2.33

allows per match

Ægir

1.00

Fylkir

1.33

+0.00on par

finishing

+0.00on par

finishing

Ægir+0.00on par

Fylkir+0.00on par

Total goals

Over54
Under46

3+ goals likely

Both teams score

Yes56
No44

Both teams likely to score

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Ægir ↓

Fylkir →

0

1

2

3

4

0

0–06%

0–110%

0–28%

0–35%

0–42%

1

1–07%

1–111%

1–210%

1–35%

1–42%

2

2–04%

2–17%

2–26%

2–33%

2–41%

3

3–02%

3–13%

3–22%

3–31%

3–41%

4

4–00%

4–11%

4–21%

4–30%

4–40%

Most likely 1–1 (11%) · grid covers 97% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5

94%6%1.5

78%22%2.5

54%46%3.5

32%68%4.5

16%84%

Double chance

Ægir or draw

51%

Ægir or Fylkir

76%

Draw or Fylkir

73%

Winning margin

Ægir wins by 2+

11%

Fylkir wins by 2+

26%

Team goals

Ægir 1+ goals

69%

Ægir 2+ goals

33%

Ægir 3+ goals

11%

Fylkir 1+ goals

81%

Fylkir 2+ goals

50%

Fylkir 3+ goals

23%

Draw no bet

Ægir (draw refunded)

35%

Fylkir (draw refunded)

65%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals

45%

Both score & under 3

11%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Ægir at home — creates 1.00, concedes 1.00 · 3 matches

Fylkir away — creates 2.33, concedes 1.33 · 3 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Ægir attack 1.00 + Fylkir defence 1.33 → ÷2 → 1.17

Fylkir attack 2.33 + Ægir defence 1.00 → ÷2 → 1.67

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 49%?"

Ægir scores more

27%

level

24%

Fylkir scores more

49%

Fylkir at 49% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

injuries & suspensions
the matchday lineup
motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
weather & pitch condition
in-game coaching decisions

So 49% does not mean "Fylkir will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Match Events

46'

Þ. Þráinsson← R. Punyed

62'

Ómar Stefánsson← Þ. Hafþórsson

63'

64'

Á. Magnússon← Đ. Panic

65'

69'

D. Čokić← A. Ásmundsson

69'

Á. Ásgeirsson← U. Ingvarsson

71'

Ó. Borgþórsson← F. Brynjólfsson

79'

D. Cokic

83'

R. Sigurðsson← B. Jónínuson

90+3'

Á. Magnússon

Ægir

Fylkir

Manager: N. Živanović

46'▲Þ. Þráinsson←▼R. Punyed

64'▲Á. Magnússon←▼Đ. Panic

69'▲D. Čokić←▼A. Ásmundsson

83'▲R. Sigurðsson←▼B. Jónínuson

Ægir substitutes

ÞráinssonMagnússonČokićSigurðssonYanachkovZivkovicĐorđević

Manager: R. Sigmundsson

62'▲Ómar Stefánsson←▼Þ. Hafþórsson

69'▲Á. Ásgeirsson←▼U. Ingvarsson

71'▲Ó. Borgþórsson←▼F. Brynjólfsson

Fylkir substitutes

StefánssonÁsgeirssonBorgþórssonÁsþórssonJónssonGuðbjörnssonIngason

Ægir 1 – 0 Fylkir

Ægir beat Fylkir 1-0 in Cup on June 26, 2022.

Goals: Á. Magnússon (90+3').

The match was played at Þorlákshafnarvöllur in Þorlákshöfn.

Ægir vs Fylkir — Cup 2025

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Total goals

Both teams score

Match Events

Head to Head

Ægir 1 – 0 Fylkir