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Gintra-Universitetas W vs Slovan Bratislava W — UEFA Champions League Women 2019

Gintra-Universitetas W
Gintra-Universitetas W
FT
4 – 0
HT: 0 – 0
Slovan Bratislava W
Slovan Bratislava W
11/4/2020UEFA Champions League WomenUEFA Champions League Women · R60310Šiaulių m. savivaldybes stadionas

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 4+ matches

Gintra-Universitetas W70%
×Draw17%
Slovan Bratislava W14%
✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 6 more than always backing the home side
Model
49.7%
Always home
44.3%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 49.7% correct across 106,786 matches, vs 44.3% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.7% correct · Away picks 47.3% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

Gintra-Universitetas W
2.63
Slovan Bratislava W
1.08

Gintra-Universitetas W creates 144% more chances

Season form · 12 home / 4 away

creates per match

Gintra-Universitetas W
1.50
Slovan Bratislava W
0.25

allows per match

Gintra-Universitetas W
1.92
Slovan Bratislava W
3.75

finishing

Gintra-Universitetas W+0.00on par
Slovan Bratislava W+0.00on par

Total goals

71%Over
  • Over71
  • Under29

3+ goals likely

Both teams score

61%Yes
  • Yes61
  • No39

Both teams likely to score

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Gintra-Universitetas W ↓

Slovan Bratislava W →
0
1
2
3
4
0
0–02%
0–13%
0–21%
0–31%
0–40%
1
1–07%
1–17%
1–24%
1–31%
1–40%
2
2–09%
2–19%
2–25%
2–32%
2–40%
3
3–08%
3–18%
3–24%
3–32%
3–40%
4
4–05%
4–15%
4–23%
4–31%
4–40%

Most likely 2–0 (9%) · grid covers 88% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5
98%2%1.5
88%12%2.5
71%29%3.5
50%50%4.5
30%70%

Double chance

Gintra-Universitetas W or draw
86%
Gintra-Universitetas W or Slovan Bratislava W
83%
Draw or Slovan Bratislava W
30%

Winning margin

Gintra-Universitetas W wins by 2+
48%
Slovan Bratislava W wins by 2+
5%

Team goals

Gintra-Universitetas W 1+ goals
93%
Gintra-Universitetas W 2+ goals
73%
Gintra-Universitetas W 3+ goals
48%
Slovan Bratislava W 1+ goals
66%
Slovan Bratislava W 2+ goals
29%
Slovan Bratislava W 3+ goals
10%

Draw no bet

Gintra-Universitetas W (draw refunded)
84%
Slovan Bratislava W (draw refunded)
16%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals
54%
Both score & under 3
7%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Gintra-Universitetas W at home — creates 1.50, concedes 1.92 · 12 matches

Slovan Bratislava W away — creates 0.25, concedes 3.75 · 4 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Gintra-Universitetas W attack 1.50 + Slovan Bratislava W defence 3.75 → ÷2 → 2.63

Slovan Bratislava W attack 0.25 + Gintra-Universitetas W defence 1.92 → ÷2 → 1.08

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 70%?"

Gintra-Universitetas W scores more
70%
level
17%
Slovan Bratislava W scores more
14%

Gintra-Universitetas W at 70% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

  • injuries & suspensions
  • the matchday lineup
  • motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
  • weather & pitch condition
  • in-game coaching decisions

So 70% does not mean "Gintra-Universitetas W will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Probable lineups not yet announced

Starting lineups are usually confirmed ~1 hour before kickoff

Match Recap: Gintra-Universitetas W vs Slovan Bratislava W

Gintra-Universitetas W beat Slovan Bratislava W 4-0 in UEFA Champions League Women on November 4, 2020.

The match was played at Šiaulių m. savivaldybes stadionas in Šiauliai.