Gintra-Universitetas W 2–0 Cardiff City W

Gintra-Universitetas W

FT

2 – 0

HT: 1 – 0

Cardiff City W

J. Bassey 49', 20' (pen)

9/6/2023

UEFA Champions League Women · 1st Round - Semi-finalsŠiaulių m. savivaldybes stadionas

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 4+ matches

Gintra-Universitetas W71%

×Draw17%

Cardiff City W13%

✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 6 more than always backing the home side

Model

49.7%

Always home

44.3%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 49.7% correct across 106,786 matches, vs 44.3% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.7% correct · Away picks 47.3% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Gintra-Universitetas WExpected goals in this matchCardiff City W

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

2.50

0.96

Gintra-Universitetas W

2.50

Cardiff City W

0.96

Gintra-Universitetas W creates 160% more chances

Season form · 12 home / 4 away

1.50

creates per match

0.00

1.92

allows per match

3.50

creates per match

Gintra-Universitetas W

1.50

Cardiff City W

0.00

allows per match

Gintra-Universitetas W

1.92

Cardiff City W

3.50

+0.00on par

finishing

+0.00on par

finishing

Gintra-Universitetas W+0.00on par

Cardiff City W+0.00on par

Total goals

Over67
Under33

3+ goals likely

Both teams score

Yes57
No43

Both teams likely to score

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Gintra-Universitetas W ↓

Cardiff City W →

0

1

2

3

4

0

0–03%

0–13%

0–21%

0–30%

0–40%

1

1–08%

1–18%

1–24%

1–31%

1–40%

2

2–010%

2–110%

2–25%

2–31%

2–40%

3

3–08%

3–18%

3–24%

3–31%

3–40%

4

4–05%

4–15%

4–22%

4–31%

4–40%

Most likely 2–0 (10%) · grid covers 90% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5

97%3%1.5

86%14%2.5

67%33%3.5

45%55%4.5

26%74%

Double chance

Gintra-Universitetas W or draw

87%

Gintra-Universitetas W or Cardiff City W

83%

Draw or Cardiff City W

29%

Winning margin

Gintra-Universitetas W wins by 2+

48%

Cardiff City W wins by 2+

4%

Team goals

Gintra-Universitetas W 1+ goals

92%

Gintra-Universitetas W 2+ goals

71%

Gintra-Universitetas W 3+ goals

45%

Cardiff City W 1+ goals

62%

Cardiff City W 2+ goals

25%

Cardiff City W 3+ goals

7%

Draw no bet

Gintra-Universitetas W (draw refunded)

85%

Cardiff City W (draw refunded)

15%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals

49%

Both score & under 3

8%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Gintra-Universitetas W at home — creates 1.50, concedes 1.92 · 12 matches

Cardiff City W away — creates 0.00, concedes 3.50 · 4 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Gintra-Universitetas W attack 1.50 + Cardiff City W defence 3.50 → ÷2 → 2.50

Cardiff City W attack 0.00 + Gintra-Universitetas W defence 1.92 → ÷2 → 0.96

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 71%?"

Gintra-Universitetas W scores more

71%

level

17%

Cardiff City W scores more

13%

Gintra-Universitetas W at 71% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

injuries & suspensions
the matchday lineup
motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
weather & pitch condition
in-game coaching decisions

So 71% does not mean "Gintra-Universitetas W will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Match Events

20'

J. BasseyPenalty

49'

J. Bassey

60'

D. Green← M. Cook

60'

E. Collie← C. Walsh

65'

A. Pauletto← S. Kashima

75'

M. Olden← D. Wilcox

76'

K. Adams← S. Watkins

90+5'

L. Kubiliūtė← J. Sunday

90+2'

T. Romanovskaja← J. Bassey

90+1'

Z. Atkins← R. Oakley

Gintra-Universitetas

Cardiff

1

4

5

3

6

21

▼

Cook

22

Beynon

10

▼

Wilcox

8

▼

Watkins

9

▼

Walsh

7

▼

95

44

20

3

2

16

10

9

▼

Kashima

28

Šupelytė

18

▼

Sunday

24

⚽2

▼

Bassey

Manager: K. Petkov

65'▲A. Pauletto←▼S. Kashima

90+5'▲L. Kubiliūtė←▼J. Sunday

90+2'▲T. Romanovskaja←▼J. Bassey

Gintra-Universitetas W substitutes

11Pauletto29Kubiliūtė17Romanovskaja1Bikutė27Partikaitė7Proscevičiūtė15Railaitė

Manager: I. Darbyshire

60'▲D. Green←▼M. Cook

60'▲E. Collie←▼C. Walsh

75'▲M. Olden←▼D. Wilcox

76'▲K. Adams←▼S. Watkins

90+1'▲Z. Atkins←▼R. Oakley

Cardiff City W substitutes

11Green39Collie18Olden12Adams14Atkins15Kehoe13Forkings2Owen17Smith25Richardson