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Ginsheim vs Hessen Dreieich — Oberliga - Hessen 2020

Ginsheim
Ginsheim
FT
3 – 3
Hessen Dreieich
Hessen Dreieich
10/3/2021Oberliga - HessenOberliga - Hessen · Hessen - 11RasenPlatz Ginsheim-Gustavsburg

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 21+ matches

Ginsheim27%
×Draw21%
Hessen Dreieich52%
✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 5 more than always backing the home side
Model
50.3%
Always home
44.5%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 50.3% correct across 582,450 matches, vs 44.5% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.5% correct · Away picks 49.5% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

Ginsheim
1.51
Hessen Dreieich
2.14

Hessen Dreieich creates 42% more chances

Season form · 22 home / 21 away

creates per match

Ginsheim
1.50
Hessen Dreieich
2.14

allows per match

Ginsheim
2.14
Hessen Dreieich
1.52

finishing

Ginsheim+0.00on par
Hessen Dreieich+0.00on par

Total goals

70%Over
  • Over70
  • Under30

3+ goals likely

Both teams score

69%Yes
  • Yes69
  • No31

Both teams likely to score

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Ginsheim ↓

Hessen Dreieich →
0
1
2
3
4
0
0–03%
0–16%
0–26%
0–34%
0–42%
1
1–04%
1–18%
1–29%
1–36%
1–43%
2
2–03%
2–16%
2–27%
2–35%
2–43%
3
3–02%
3–13%
3–23%
3–32%
3–41%
4
4–01%
4–11%
4–21%
4–31%
4–40%

Most likely 1–2 (9%) · grid covers 92% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5
97%3%1.5
88%12%2.5
70%30%3.5
49%51%4.5
30%70%

Double chance

Ginsheim or draw
48%
Ginsheim or Hessen Dreieich
79%
Draw or Hessen Dreieich
73%

Winning margin

Ginsheim wins by 2+
12%
Hessen Dreieich wins by 2+
31%

Team goals

Ginsheim 1+ goals
78%
Ginsheim 2+ goals
44%
Ginsheim 3+ goals
19%
Hessen Dreieich 1+ goals
88%
Hessen Dreieich 2+ goals
63%
Hessen Dreieich 3+ goals
36%

Draw no bet

Ginsheim (draw refunded)
34%
Hessen Dreieich (draw refunded)
66%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals
60%
Both score & under 3
8%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Ginsheim at home — creates 1.50, concedes 2.14 · 22 matches

Hessen Dreieich away — creates 2.14, concedes 1.52 · 21 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Ginsheim attack 1.50 + Hessen Dreieich defence 1.52 → ÷2 → 1.51

Hessen Dreieich attack 2.14 + Ginsheim defence 2.14 → ÷2 → 2.14

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 52%?"

Ginsheim scores more
27%
level
21%
Hessen Dreieich scores more
52%

Hessen Dreieich at 52% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

  • injuries & suspensions
  • the matchday lineup
  • motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
  • weather & pitch condition
  • in-game coaching decisions

So 52% does not mean "Hessen Dreieich will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Probable lineups not yet announced

Starting lineups are usually confirmed ~1 hour before kickoff

Match Recap: Ginsheim vs Hessen Dreieich

Ginsheim and Hessen Dreieich drew 3-3 in Oberliga - Hessen on October 3, 2021.

The match was played at RasenPlatz Ginsheim-Gustavsburg in Ginsheim-Gustavsburg.