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Giner Torrero vs Caspe — Tercera División RFEF - Group 17 2019

Giner Torrero
Giner Torrero
FT
1 – 1
HT: 0 – 1
Caspe
Caspe
9/19/2021Tercera División RFEF - Group 17Tercera División RFEF - Group 17 · Group 17 - 3Estadio Municipal de Torrero

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 16+ matches

Giner Torrero22%
×Draw24%
Caspe55%
✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 6 more than always backing the home side
Model
49.7%
Always home
44.3%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 49.7% correct across 106,786 matches, vs 44.3% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.7% correct · Away picks 47.3% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

Giner Torrero
1.02
Caspe
1.76

Caspe creates 73% more chances

Season form · 16 home / 83 away

creates per match

Giner Torrero
0.94
Caspe
0.89

allows per match

Giner Torrero
2.63
Caspe
1.10

finishing

Giner Torrero+0.00on par
Caspe+0.00on par

Total goals

52%Over
  • Over52
  • Under48

Close call

Both teams score

53%Yes
  • Yes53
  • No47

Both teams likely to score

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Giner Torrero ↓

Caspe →
0
1
2
3
4
0
0–06%
0–111%
0–210%
0–36%
0–42%
1
1–06%
1–111%
1–210%
1–36%
1–43%
2
2–03%
2–16%
2–25%
2–33%
2–41%
3
3–01%
3–12%
3–22%
3–31%
3–40%
4
4–00%
4–10%
4–20%
4–30%
4–40%

Most likely 0–1 (11%) · grid covers 96% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5
94%6%1.5
76%24%2.5
52%48%3.5
30%70%4.5
15%85%

Double chance

Giner Torrero or draw
45%
Giner Torrero or Caspe
76%
Draw or Caspe
78%

Winning margin

Giner Torrero wins by 2+
8%
Caspe wins by 2+
30%

Team goals

Giner Torrero 1+ goals
64%
Giner Torrero 2+ goals
27%
Giner Torrero 3+ goals
8%
Caspe 1+ goals
83%
Caspe 2+ goals
52%
Caspe 3+ goals
26%

Draw no bet

Giner Torrero (draw refunded)
29%
Caspe (draw refunded)
71%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals
42%
Both score & under 3
11%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Giner Torrero at home — creates 0.94, concedes 2.63 · 16 matches

Caspe away — creates 0.89, concedes 1.10 · 83 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Giner Torrero attack 0.94 + Caspe defence 1.10 → ÷2 → 1.02

Caspe attack 0.89 + Giner Torrero defence 2.63 → ÷2 → 1.76

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 55%?"

Giner Torrero scores more
22%
level
24%
Caspe scores more
55%

Caspe at 55% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

  • injuries & suspensions
  • the matchday lineup
  • motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
  • weather & pitch condition
  • in-game coaching decisions

So 55% does not mean "Caspe will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Probable lineups not yet announced

Starting lineups are usually confirmed ~1 hour before kickoff

Tercera División RFEF - Group 17: Giner Torrero 1–1 Caspe

Giner Torrero and Caspe drew 1-1 in Tercera División RFEF - Group 17 on September 19, 2021.

The match was played at Estadio Municipal de Torrero in Zaragoza.