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Giner Torrero vs Cariñena — Tercera División RFEF - Group 17 2019

Giner Torrero
Giner Torrero
FT
0 – 0
HT: 0 – 0
Cariñena
Cariñena
11/28/2021Tercera División RFEF - Group 17Tercera División RFEF - Group 17 · Group 17 - 13Estadio Municipal de Torrero

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 16+ matches

Giner Torrero30%
×Draw23%
Cariñena46%
✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 6 more than always backing the home side
Model
49.7%
Always home
44.3%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 49.7% correct across 106,786 matches, vs 44.3% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.7% correct · Away picks 47.3% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

Giner Torrero
1.39
Cariñena
1.77

Cariñena creates 27% more chances

Season form · 16 home / 82 away

creates per match

Giner Torrero
0.94
Cariñena
0.91

allows per match

Giner Torrero
2.63
Cariñena
1.83

finishing

Giner Torrero+0.00on par
Cariñena+0.00on par

Total goals

61%Over
  • Over61
  • Under39

3+ goals likely

Both teams score

62%Yes
  • Yes62
  • No38

Both teams likely to score

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Giner Torrero ↓

Cariñena →
0
1
2
3
4
0
0–04%
0–18%
0–27%
0–34%
0–42%
1
1–06%
1–110%
1–29%
1–35%
1–42%
2
2–04%
2–17%
2–26%
2–34%
2–42%
3
3–02%
3–13%
3–23%
3–32%
3–41%
4
4–01%
4–11%
4–21%
4–31%
4–40%

Most likely 1–1 (10%) · grid covers 96% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5
96%4%1.5
82%18%2.5
61%39%3.5
39%61%4.5
21%79%

Double chance

Giner Torrero or draw
54%
Giner Torrero or Cariñena
77%
Draw or Cariñena
70%

Winning margin

Giner Torrero wins by 2+
13%
Cariñena wins by 2+
25%

Team goals

Giner Torrero 1+ goals
75%
Giner Torrero 2+ goals
40%
Giner Torrero 3+ goals
16%
Cariñena 1+ goals
83%
Cariñena 2+ goals
53%
Cariñena 3+ goals
26%

Draw no bet

Giner Torrero (draw refunded)
40%
Cariñena (draw refunded)
60%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals
52%
Both score & under 3
10%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Giner Torrero at home — creates 0.94, concedes 2.63 · 16 matches

Cariñena away — creates 0.91, concedes 1.83 · 82 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Giner Torrero attack 0.94 + Cariñena defence 1.83 → ÷2 → 1.39

Cariñena attack 0.91 + Giner Torrero defence 2.63 → ÷2 → 1.77

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 46%?"

Giner Torrero scores more
30%
level
23%
Cariñena scores more
46%

Cariñena at 46% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

  • injuries & suspensions
  • the matchday lineup
  • motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
  • weather & pitch condition
  • in-game coaching decisions

So 46% does not mean "Cariñena will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Probable lineups not yet announced

Starting lineups are usually confirmed ~1 hour before kickoff

Tercera División RFEF - Group 17: Giner Torrero 0–0 Cariñena

Giner Torrero and Cariñena drew 0-0 in Tercera División RFEF - Group 17 on November 28, 2021.

The match was played at Estadio Municipal de Torrero in Zaragoza.