Giner Torrero 0–3 Atlético Monzón: Result & Stats

Giner Torrero

FT

0 – 3

HT: 0 – 2

Atlético Monzón

4/10/2022

Tercera División RFEF - Group 17 · Group 17 - 31Estadio Municipal de Torrero

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 16+ matches

Giner Torrero20%

×Draw22%

Atlético Monzón58%

✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 6 more than always backing the home side

Model

49.7%

Always home

44.3%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 49.7% correct across 106,786 matches, vs 44.3% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.7% correct · Away picks 47.3% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Giner TorreroExpected goals in this matchAtlético Monzón

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

1.03

1.92

Giner Torrero

1.03

Atlético Monzón

1.92

Atlético Monzón creates 86% more chances

Season form · 16 home / 115 away

0.94

creates per match

1.22

2.63

allows per match

1.13

creates per match

Giner Torrero

0.94

Atlético Monzón

1.22

allows per match

Giner Torrero

2.63

Atlético Monzón

1.13

+0.00on par

finishing

+0.00on par

finishing

Giner Torrero+0.00on par

Atlético Monzón+0.00on par

Total goals

Over56
Under44

3+ goals likely

Both teams score

Yes55
No45

Both teams likely to score

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Giner Torrero ↓

Atlético Monzón →

0

1

2

3

4

0

0–05%

0–110%

0–210%

0–36%

0–43%

1

1–05%

1–110%

1–210%

1–36%

1–43%

2

2–03%

2–15%

2–25%

2–33%

2–42%

3

3–01%

3–12%

3–22%

3–31%

3–41%

4

4–00%

4–10%

4–20%

4–30%

4–40%

Most likely 0–1 (10%) · grid covers 95% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5

95%5%1.5

79%21%2.5

56%44%3.5

34%66%4.5

17%83%

Double chance

Giner Torrero or draw

42%

Giner Torrero or Atlético Monzón

78%

Draw or Atlético Monzón

80%

Winning margin

Giner Torrero wins by 2+

7%

Atlético Monzón wins by 2+

34%

Team goals

Giner Torrero 1+ goals

64%

Giner Torrero 2+ goals

28%

Giner Torrero 3+ goals

9%

Atlético Monzón 1+ goals

85%

Atlético Monzón 2+ goals

57%

Atlético Monzón 3+ goals

30%

Draw no bet

Giner Torrero (draw refunded)

26%

Atlético Monzón (draw refunded)

74%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals

44%

Both score & under 3

10%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Giner Torrero at home — creates 0.94, concedes 2.63 · 16 matches

Atlético Monzón away — creates 1.22, concedes 1.13 · 115 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Giner Torrero attack 0.94 + Atlético Monzón defence 1.13 → ÷2 → 1.03

Atlético Monzón attack 1.22 + Giner Torrero defence 2.63 → ÷2 → 1.92

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 58%?"

Giner Torrero scores more

20%

level

22%

Atlético Monzón scores more

58%

Atlético Monzón at 58% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

injuries & suspensions
the matchday lineup
motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
weather & pitch condition
in-game coaching decisions

So 58% does not mean "Atlético Monzón will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Probable lineups not yet announced

Starting lineups are usually confirmed ~1 hour before kickoff