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Gimpo Citizen vs Gyeongnam FC — K League 2 2026

Gimpo Citizen
Gimpo Citizen
FT
0 – 1
HT: 0 – 0
Gyeongnam FC
Gyeongnam FC
11/26/2023K League 2K League 2 · Round 39Gimpo Salter Soccer Field

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 79+ matches

Gimpo Citizen40%
×Draw27%
Gyeongnam FC33%
✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 5 more than always backing the home side
Model
50.3%
Always home
44.5%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 50.3% correct across 582,450 matches, vs 44.5% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.5% correct · Away picks 49.5% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

Gimpo Citizen
1.32
Gyeongnam FC
1.19

Gimpo Citizen creates 11% more chances

Season form · 79 home / 117 away

creates per match

Gimpo Citizen
1.20
Gyeongnam FC
1.20

allows per match

Gimpo Citizen
1.19
Gyeongnam FC
1.44

finishing

Gimpo Citizen+0.00on par
Gyeongnam FC+0.00on par

Total goals

54%Under
  • Under54
  • Over46

Fewer than 3 goals likely

Both teams score

51%Yes
  • Yes51
  • No49

Close call

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Gimpo Citizen ↓

Gyeongnam FC →
0
1
2
3
4
0
0–08%
0–110%
0–26%
0–32%
0–41%
1
1–011%
1–113%
1–28%
1–33%
1–41%
2
2–07%
2–18%
2–25%
2–32%
2–41%
3
3–03%
3–14%
3–22%
3–31%
3–40%
4
4–01%
4–11%
4–21%
4–30%
4–40%

Most likely 1–1 (13%) · grid covers 98% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5
92%8%1.5
71%29%2.5
46%54%3.5
24%76%4.5
11%89%

Double chance

Gimpo Citizen or draw
67%
Gimpo Citizen or Gyeongnam FC
73%
Draw or Gyeongnam FC
60%

Winning margin

Gimpo Citizen wins by 2+
18%
Gyeongnam FC wins by 2+
14%

Team goals

Gimpo Citizen 1+ goals
73%
Gimpo Citizen 2+ goals
38%
Gimpo Citizen 3+ goals
15%
Gyeongnam FC 1+ goals
70%
Gyeongnam FC 2+ goals
33%
Gyeongnam FC 3+ goals
12%

Draw no bet

Gimpo Citizen (draw refunded)
54%
Gyeongnam FC (draw refunded)
46%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals
38%
Both score & under 3
13%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Gimpo Citizen at home — creates 1.20, concedes 1.19 · 79 matches

Gyeongnam FC away — creates 1.20, concedes 1.44 · 117 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Gimpo Citizen attack 1.20 + Gyeongnam FC defence 1.44 → ÷2 → 1.32

Gyeongnam FC attack 1.20 + Gimpo Citizen defence 1.19 → ÷2 → 1.19

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 40%?"

Gimpo Citizen scores more
40%
level
27%
Gyeongnam FC scores more
33%

Gimpo Citizen at 40% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

  • injuries & suspensions
  • the matchday lineup
  • motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
  • weather & pitch condition
  • in-game coaching decisions

So 40% does not mean "Gimpo Citizen will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Probable lineups not yet announced

Starting lineups are usually confirmed ~1 hour before kickoff

K League 2: Gimpo Citizen 0–1 Gyeongnam FC

Gyeongnam FC beat Gimpo Citizen 1-0 in K League 2 on November 26, 2023.

The match was played at Gimpo Salter Soccer Field in Gimpo.